Association of Cardiovascular Disease With Premature Mortality in the United States.

Importance: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States. Despite substantial declines in CVD mortality rates during past decades, progress against cardiovascular deaths in midlife has stagnated, with rates increased in some US racial/ethnic groups. Objective: To examine the trends in premature (ages 25-64 years) mortality from CVD from 2000 to 2015 by demographics and county-level factors, including education, rurality, and the prevalence of smoking, obesity, and diabetes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This descriptive study used US national mortality data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data set and included all CVD deaths among individuals ages 25 to 64 years from January 2000 to December 2015. The data analysis began in February 2018. Exposures: Age, sex, race/ethnicity, and county-level factors. Main Outcomes and Measures: Age-standardized mortality rates and average annual percent change (AAPC) in rates by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and county-level factors (in quintiles) and relative risks of CVD mortality across quintiles of each county-level factor. Results: In 2000 to 2015, 2.3 million CVD deaths occurred among individuals age 25 to 64 years in the United States. There were significant declines in CVD mortality for black, Latinx, and Asian and Pacific Islander individuals (AAPC: range, -1.7 to -3.2%), although black people continued to have the highest CVD mortality rates. Mortality rates were second highest for American Indian/Alaskan Native individuals and increased significantly among those aged 25 to 49 years (AAPC: women, 2.1%; men, 1.3%). For white individuals, mortality rates plateaued among women age 25 to 49 years (AAPC, 0.05%). Declines in mortality rates were observed for most major CVD subtypes except for ischemic heart disease, which was stable in white women and increased in American Indian/Alaska Native women, hypertensive heart disease, for which significant increases in rates were observed in most racial/ethnic groups, and endocarditis, for which rates increased in white individuals and American Indian/Alaska Native men. Counties with the highest prevalence of diabetes (quintile 5 vs quintile 1: relative risk range 1.6-1.8 for white individuals and 1.4-1.6 for black individuals) had the most risk of CVD mortality. Conclusions and Relevance: There have been substantial declines in premature CVD mortality in much of the US population. However, increases in CVD mortality before age 50 years among American Indian/Alaska Native individuals, flattening rates in white people, and overall increases in deaths from hypertensive disease suggest that targeted public health interventions are needed to prevent these premature deaths.