ArticleNature communications2019
Impacts of environmental and socio-economic factors on emergence and epidemic potential of Ebola in Africa.
Article in Nature communications, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 47 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
47 citing papers in PubMed, 106 citations in OpenAlex.
- Ebola Virus Disease in the Era of One Health and Global Preparedness: Evolving Epidemiology, Genomic Surveillance, and Future Challenges.Infectious disease reports · 2026Review
- Ebola virus disease: A persistent challenge in global health security.Open veterinary journal · 2026Review
- Access to licenced vaccines for high-threat infectious diseases: a scoping review and interpretive analysis of Ebola virus disease.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- A Scoping Review of Machine Learning Applications Across Epidemiological Stages of Zoonotic Disease.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2026Article
- Drug Repurposing Investigation for Combating Ebola Virus Disease: Database Mining, Docking Calculations, Molecular Dynamics, and Density Functional Theory Study.ChemistryOpen · 2025Article
- Association between timeliness of detection, notification and response and the magnitude, severity and duration of disease outbreaks: a retrospective review of 84 outbreaks in Uganda, 2017-2022.BMJ global health · 2025Article
- Modeling and analysis of fascioliasis disease with Katugampola fractional derivative: a memory-incorporated epidemiological approach.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Impact of dual climatic and socioeconomic factors on global trends in infectious disease outbreaks.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Human animal contact, land use change and zoonotic disease risk: a protocol for systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2025Article
- Reducing transmission in multiple settings is required to eliminate the risk of major Ebola outbreaks: a mathematical modelling study.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Charting a novel path towards Ebola virus disease preparedness: Considerations for preventive vaccination.PLoS medicine · 2025Article
- Assessing the ecological resilience of Ebola virus in Africa and potential influencing factors based on a synthesized model.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Identification of Prospective Ebola Virus VP35 and VP40 Protein Inhibitors from Myxobacterial Natural Products.Biomolecules · 2024Article
- Heterologous cAd3-Ebola and MVA-EbolaZ vaccines are safe and immunogenic in US and Uganda phase 1/1b trials.NPJ vaccines · 2024Article
- The impact of anthropogenic climate change on pediatric viral diseases.Pediatric research · 2024Review
- Modeling Supply and Demand Dynamics of Vaccines against Epidemic-Prone Pathogens: Case Study of Ebola Virus Disease.Vaccines · 2023Article
- Integrating databases for spatial analysis of parasite-host associations and the novel Brazilian dataset.Scientific data · 2023Article
- Article
- Using mechanistic models to highlight research priorities for tick-borne zoonotic diseases: Improving our understanding of the ecology and maintenance of Kyasanur Forest Disease in India.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- Ecological niche model transferability of the white star apple (Chrysophyllum albidum G. Don) in the context of climate and global changes.Scientific reports · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
7 authors at 6 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Recent outbreaks of animal-borne emerging infectious diseases have likely been precipitated by a complex interplay of changing ecological, epidemiological and socio-economic factors. Here, we develop modelling methods that capture elements of each of these factors, to predict the risk of Ebola virus disease (EVD) across time and space. Our modelling results match previously-observed outbreak patterns with high accuracy, and suggest further outbreaks could occur across most of West and Central Africa. Trends in the underlying drivers of EVD risk suggest a 1.75 to 3.2-fold increase in the endemic rate of animal-human viral spill-overs in Africa by 2070, given current modes of healthcare intervention. Future global change scenarios with higher human population growth and lower rates of socio-economic development yield a fourfold higher likelihood of epidemics occurring as a result of spill-over events. Our modelling framework can be used to target interventions designed to reduce epidemic risk for many zoonotic diseases.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.