Economic Growth and Cardiorespiratory Fitness of Children and Adolescents in Urban Areas: A Panel Data Analysis of 27 Provinces in China, 1985-2014.

With rapid economic development in China, cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) of children and adolescents is on a decline. However, this appears to have slowed down, reaching stagnation in certain areas. However, it is unclear if the change in CRF is related to economic growth and development or not. This study describes trends in CRF of Chinese children and adolescents, and empirically tests the relationships between China's macro-economic developments and cardiorespiratory fitness of children and adolescents over the past 30 years using provincial panel data collected from one million samples. We used per capita disposable income as the economic indicator. CRF was assessed by using running tests: 50 m × 8 for boys and girls (7-12 years), 1000 m for boys (13-22 years), and 800 m for girls (13-22 years). The results show that economic growth has a U-shaped relationship with CRF of children and adolescents (both boys and girls). It appears that as incomes increased, CRF of urban male and female students in China gradually decreased to its lowest point, after which it showed an upward trend. From a horizontal perspective, it can be inferred that for low-developed provinces, increases in incomes cause a decrease in CRF levels. In contrast, for highly developed provinces, as incomes increase, CRF levels increase. This study provides the first empirical evidence of the relationship between macro-economy and CRF of youth, based on provincial panel data. The results presented here can be used to formulate health policies targeting the cardiorespiratory fitness of children and adolescents from middle-income provinces in China. This study also provides a reference for developing countries.