ArticlePloS one2019
The contribution of age structure to the international homicide decline.
Article in PloS one, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Characterising the killing of girls and women in urban settings in Latin America, 2000-2019: an analysis of variability and time trends using mortality data from vital registration systems.BMJ public health · 2024Article
- Are the geographic disparities in U.S. violent crime rising?PloS one · 2024Article
- Examining the stability and change in age-crime relation in South Korea, 1980-2019: An age-period-cohort analysis.PloS one · 2024Article
- Trend Analysis of Homicide Mortality and Years of Life Lost in the South of Iran, 2004-2019.Journal of research in health sciences · 2023Article
- Increased Prescribing of Psychotropic Drugs or School-Based Services for Children with Disabilities? Associations of These Self-control-Boosting Strategies with Juvenile Violence at the State Level.Journal of developmental and life-course criminology · 2023Article
- Unravelling the Homicide Drop: Disaggregating a 25-Year Homicide Trend in the Netherlands.European journal on criminal policy and research · 2023Article
- Opioid mortality, public health care expenditures, and cross-national homicide rates: findings from 25 OECD countries, 2000-2017.Social psychiatry and psychiatric epidemiology · 2022Article
- A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime.Nature human behaviour · 2021Article
- Margin for error: examining racial and ethnic trends in adolescent risk propensity.Social psychiatry and psychiatric epidemiology · 2021Article
- Impact of structural ageism on greater violence against older persons: a cross-national study of 56 countries.BMJ open · 2021Article
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Abstract
backgroundSince 1990, the world's homicide rate has declined by nearly 20%. While prior research has documented parallel homicide declines across many individual countries, the causes of a shared international homicide decline remain unknown. Drawing on a worldwide process of population ageing, and on research linking age to criminal activity, this study investigates the contribution of global demographic shifts to the international homicide decline.
methodsWe draw from (1) a High Coverage Sample of 126 countries since 1990, and (2) a Long Series Sample of 26 countries since 1960 and utilize fixed-effect regressions to evaluate the impact of age structure on homicide trends. In addition, we use a quantile regression to explore variations in the relationship between age structure and homicide conditional on homicide levels.
findingsResults using the High Coverage Sample suggest no relationship between age structure and homicide. However, results from the Long Series Sample suggest that changes in the relative size of countries' youth population is a major predictor of homicide trends since 1960. In exploring this divergence, we find that the influence of age structure on homicide becomes less evident as other risk factors for violence gain prominence. Thus, while high homicide countries had the most to gain from falling homicide rates, the safety benefits of an ageing population have been concentrated among the least violent countries.
interpretationWhile the homicide declines of individual countries have often been attributed to domestic policies, the universality of international homicide trends suggests the influence of broader global phenomenon. We find that countries' homicide trends are strongly associated with changes in the size of their youth populations, particularly where there are few competing criminogenic forces. Based on these results, we propose an explanation for the international homicide decline, while highlighting the importance of demographic patterns in explaining homicide trends.
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