ArticleThe British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners2019
The value of the GP's clinical judgement in predicting dementia: a multicentre prospective cohort study among patients in general practice.
Article in The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Angiotensin II-stimulating versus inhibiting antihypertensives and risk of dementia: a nested case-control study using Australian general practice data.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- An Automated Mobile Cognitive Test for the Identification of Cognitive Impairment: A Cross-sectional Feasibility and Diagnostic Study.Mayo Clinic proceedings. Digital health · 2025Article
- Article
- Improving event prediction using general practitioner clinical judgement in a digital risk stratification model: a pilot study.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2024Article
- What is the present role for general practitioners in dementia care? Experiences of general practitioners, patients and family carers in Portugal.Dementia (London, England) · 2021Article
- GPs' awareness of car driving among oldest patients: exploratory results from a primary care cohort.BJGP open · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
13 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundClinical judgement is intrinsic to diagnostic strategies in general practice; however, empirical evidence for its validity is sparse.
aimTo ascertain whether a GP's global clinical judgement of future cognitive status has an added value for predicting a patient's likelihood of experiencing dementia. DESIGN AND
settingMulticentre prospective cohort study among patients in German general practice that took place from January 2003 to October 2016.
methodPatients without baseline dementia were assessed with neuropsychological interviews over 12 years; 138 GPs rated the future cognitive decline of their participating patients. Associations of baseline predictors with follow-up incident dementia were analysed with mixed-effects logistic and Cox regression.
resultsA total of 3201 patients were analysed over the study period (mean age = 79.6 years, 65.3% females, 6.7% incident dementia in 3 years, 22.1% incident dementia in 12 years). Descriptive analyses and comparison with other cohorts identified the participants as having frequent and long-lasting doctor-patient relationships and being well known to their GPs. The GP baseline rating of future cognitive decline had significant value for 3-year dementia prediction, independent of cognitive test scores and patient's memory complaints (GP ratings of very mild (odds ratio [OR] 1.97, 95% confidence intervals [95% CI] = 1.28 to 3.04); mild (OR 3.00, 95% CI = 1.90 to 4.76); and moderate/severe decline (OR 5.66, 95% CI = 3.29 to 9.73)). GPs' baseline judgements were significantly associated with patients' 12-year dementia-free survival rates (Mantel-Cox log rank test
conclusionIn this sample of patients in familiar doctor-patient relationships, the GP's clinical judgement holds additional value for predicting dementia, complementing test performance and patients' self-reports. Existing and emerging primary care-based dementia risk models should consider the GP's judgement as one predictor. Results underline the importance of the GP-patient relationship.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.