ArticleWorld journal of surgery2020
A New Recalibrated Four-Category Child-Pugh Score Performs Better than the Original Child-Pugh and MELD Scores in Predicting In-Hospital Mortality in Decompensated Alcoholic Cirrhotic Patients with Acute Variceal Bleeding: a Real-World Cohort Analysis.
Article in World journal of surgery, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 21 citations in OpenAlex.
- Management of Liver Cirrhosis in Percutaneous and Surgical Cardiac Interventions.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2026Review
- Comparison of Child-Pugh and MELD scores in predicting survival of hepatocellular carcinoma patients with splenomegaly undergoing TACE: a real-world study.Frontiers in medicine · 2026Article
- Is There a Role for the Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio for Rebleeding and Mortality Risk Prediction in Acute Variceal Bleeding? A Comparative 5-Year Retrospective Study.Diseases (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Article
- Acute-on-chronic liver failure is independently associated with higher mortality for cirrhotic patients with acute esophageal variceal hemorrhage: Retrospective cohort study.World journal of clinical cases · 2023Article
- Novel CABIN score outperforms other prognostic models in predicting in-hospital mortality after salvage transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunting.World journal of gastrointestinal pathophysiology · 2023Article
- Evaluation of seven gene signature for predicting HCV recurrence post-liver transplantation.Journal, genetic engineering & biotechnology · 2021Article
- Defining the advantages and exposing the limitations of endoscopic variceal ligation in controlling acute bleeding and achieving complete variceal eradication.World journal of gastrointestinal endoscopy · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThere currently is no consensus on how to accurately predict early rebleeding and death after a major variceal bleed. This study investigated the relative predictive performances of the original Child-Pugh (CP), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and a four-category recalibrated Child-Pugh (rCP).
methodsThis prospective study included all adult patients admitted to Groote Schuur Hospital with acute esophageal variceal bleeding secondary to alcoholic cirrhosis, between January 2000 and December 2017. CP and rCP grades and MELD score were calculated on admission, and the predictive ability in discriminating in-hospital rebleeding and death was compared by area under receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curves.
resultsDuring the study period, 403 consecutive adult patients were treated for bleeding esophageal varices of whom 225 were secondary to alcoholic cirrhosis. Twenty-four (10.6%) patients were CP grade A, 88 (39.1%) grade B and 113 (50.2%) grade C on hospital admission. MELD scores ranged from 6 to 40. Thirty-one (13.8%) patients rebleed, and 41 (18.2%) patients died. There was no difference in the discriminatory capacity of the CP (AUROC 0.59, 95% CI 0.50-0.670) and MELD (AUROC 0.62, 95% CI 0.51-0.73) to predict rebleeding (p = 0.72), or between the Child-Pugh (AUROC 0.75, 95% CI 0.71-0.81) and MELD (AUROC 0.71, 95% CI 0.62-0.80) to predict death (p = 0.35). The rCP classification (A-D) had a significantly improved discriminatory capacity (AUROC 0.83 95% CI 0.77-0.89) compared to the CP score (A-C) and MELD to predict death (p = 0.004).
conclusionA recalibrated Child-Pugh score outperforms the original Child-Pugh grade and MELD score in predicting in-hospital death in patients with bleeding esophageal varices secondary to alcoholic cirrhosis.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.