Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31579990›Full record

ArticleLiver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver2020

Improved survival prediction and comparison of prognostic models for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib.

Tim A Labeur, Sarah Berhane, Julien Edeline, Jean-Frederic Blanc, Dominik Bettinger, Tim Meyer, Jeroen L A Van Vugt, David W G Ten Cate, Robert A De Man, Ferry A L M Eskens and 6 more

Abstract readMulticenter StudyValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in Liver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
28citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

28 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

16 authors.

Tim A LabeurCancer Center Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-9988-5077
Sarah BerhaneDepartment of Biostatistics, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
Julien EdelineDepartment of Oncology, Centre Eugène Marquis, Rennes, France.ORCID 0000-0002-8289-7741
Jean-Frederic BlancDepartment of Hepatology, CHU Hôpital Saint André, Bordeaux, France.
Dominik BettingerDepartment of Medicine II, Medical Center University of Freiburg, Faculty of Medicine, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-8782-8729
Tim MeyerUCL Cancer Institute, University College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-0782-8647
Jeroen L A Van VugtDepartment of Surgery, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
David W G Ten CateDepartment of Surgery, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-8013-9701
Robert A De ManDepartment of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Ferry A L M EskensDepartment of Medical Oncology, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Alessandro CucchettiDepartment of Medical and Surgical Sciences, Alma Mater Studiorum, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy.ORCID 0000-0001-5269-1964
Laura J BonnettDepartment of Biostatistics, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-6981-9212
Otto M Van DeldenDepartment of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0003-3342-9367
Heinz-Josef KlümpenDepartment of Medical Oncology, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-7290-1823
R Bart TakkenbergDepartment of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0003-2179-1385
Philip J JohnsonDepartment of Molecular and Clinical Cancer Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.

Funding

Department of Health
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe 'Prediction Of Survival in Advanced Sorafenib-treated HCC' (PROSASH) model addressed the heterogeneous survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with sorafenib in clinical trials but requires validation in daily clinical practice. This study aimed to validate, compare and optimize this model for survival prediction.

methodsPatients treated with sorafenib for HCC at five tertiary European centres were retrospectively staged according to the PROSASH model. In addition, the optimized PROSASH-II model was developed using the data of four centres (training set) and tested in an independent dataset. These models for overall survival (OS) were then compared with existing prognostic models.

resultsThe PROSASH model was validated in 445 patients, showing clear differences between the four risk groups (OS 16.9-4.6 months). A total of 920 patients (n = 615 in training set, n = 305 in validation set) were available to develop PROSASH-II. This optimized model incorporated fewer and less subjective parameters: the serum albumin, bilirubin and alpha-foetoprotein, and macrovascular invasion, extrahepatic spread and largest tumour size on imaging. Both PROSASH and PROSASH-II showed improved discrimination (C-index 0.62 and 0.63, respectively) compared with existing prognostic scores (C-index ≤0.59).

conclusionsIn HCC patients treated with sorafenib, individualized prediction of survival and risk group stratification using baseline prognostic and predictive parameters with the PROSASH model was validated. The refined PROSASH-II model performed at least as good with fewer and more objective parameters. PROSASH-II can be used as a tool for tailored treatment of HCC in daily practice and to define pre-planned subgroups for future studies.

Indexed as

Predictive Value of TestsAgedalpha-FetoproteinsAntineoplastic AgentsBilirubinCarcinoma, HepatocellularFemaleHumansLiver NeoplasmsMaleMiddle AgedPhenylurea CompoundsPrognosisReproducibility of ResultsRetrospective StudiesRisk Factorsalpha-FetoproteinsAntineoplastic AgentsBilirubinPhenylurea CompoundsSerum Albumin, HumanSorafenibhepatocellular carcinomamodelpredictionprognosissorafenibsurvival

Identifiers

PMID31579990
PMCPMC6973249

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.