Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31578197›Full record

ArticleBMJ open2019

Assessing the impact of rising child poverty on the unprecedented rise in infant mortality in England, 2000-2017: time trend analysis.

David Taylor-Robinson, Eric T C Lai, Sophie Wickham, Tanith Rose, Paul Norman, Clare Bambra, Margaret Whitehead, Ben Barr

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 52 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
52citing papers in PubMed, 5 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

52 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

David Taylor-RobinsonDepartment of Public Health and Policy, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK dctr@liv.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0002-5828-7724
Eric T C LaiDepartment of Public Health and Policy, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
Sophie WickhamDepartment of Public Health and Policy, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
Tanith RoseDepartment of Public Health and Policy, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
Paul NormanSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
Clare BambraInstitute of Health and Society, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UK.
Margaret WhiteheadDepartment of Public Health and Policy, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
Ben BarrDepartment of Public Health and Policy, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.

Funding

Medical Research Council G0802448Medical Research Council MR/K02325X/1Medical Research Council MR/P008577/1Wellcome TrustWellcome Trust 200335/Z/15/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo determine whether there were inequalities in the sustained rise in infant mortality in England in recent years and the contribution of rising child poverty to these trends.

designThis is an analysis of trends in infant mortality in local authorities grouped into five categories (quintiles) based on their level of income deprivation. Fixed-effects regression models were used to quantify the association between regional changes in child poverty and regional changes in infant mortality.

setting324 English local authorities in 9 English government office regions.

participantsLive-born children under 1 year of age.

main outcome measureInfant mortality rate, defined as the number of deaths in children under 1 year of age per 100 000 live births in the same year.

resultsThe sustained and unprecedented rise in infant mortality in England from 2014 to 2017 was not experienced evenly across the population. In the most deprived local authorities, the previously declining trend in infant mortality reversed and mortality rose, leading to an additional 24 infant deaths per 100 000 live births per year (95% CI 6 to 42), relative to the previous trend. There was no significant change from the pre-existing trend in the most affluent local authorities. As a result, inequalities in infant mortality increased, with the gap between the most and the least deprived local authority areas widening by 52 deaths per 100 000 births (95% CI 36 to 68). Overall from 2014 to 2017, there were a total of 572 excess infant deaths (95% CI 200 to 944) compared with what would have been expected based on historical trends. We estimated that each 1% increase in child poverty was significantly associated with an extra 5.8 infant deaths per 100 000 live births (95% CI 2.4 to 9.2). The findings suggest that about a third of the increases in infant mortality between 2014 and 2017 can be attributed to rising child poverty (172 deaths, 95% CI 74 to 266).

conclusionThis study provides evidence that the unprecedented rise in infant mortality disproportionately affected the poorest areas of the country, leaving the more affluent areas unaffected. Our analysis also linked the recent increase in infant mortality in England with rising child poverty, suggesting that about a third of the increase in infant mortality from 2014 to 2017 may be attributed to rising child poverty.

Indexed as

Health Status DisparitiesPoverty AreasChild, PreschoolEnglandFemaleHumansIncomeInfantInfant MortalityInfant, NewbornMaleRegression Analysiscommunity child healthepidemiologyhealth policypublic health

Identifiers

PMID31578197
PMCPMC6954495

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.