Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31575421›Full record

ArticleThe American journal of cardiology2019

Resting Heart Rate, Short-Term Heart Rate Variability and Incident Atrial Fibrillation (from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)).

Mohammadali Habibi, Harjit Chahal, Philip Greenland, Eliseo Guallar, João A C Lima, Elsayed Z Soliman, Alvaro Alonso, Susan R Heckbert, Saman Nazarian

Open access · greenAbstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in The American journal of cardiology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
30citing papers in PubMed
4.2field-weighted citation impact, top 5% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

30 citing papers in PubMed, 52 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Review
  2. Atrial cardiomyopathy as a multidomain disease: longitudinal evidence for autonomic remodelling.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2026
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Review
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Association between heart rate fragmentation and kidney function decline in MESA: evidence consistent with parasympathetic degradation.American journal of physiology. Regulatory, integrative and comparative physiology · 2025
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Review
  12. Article
  13. Review
  14. The impact of visit-to-visit heart rate variability on all-cause mortality in atrial fibrillation.Annals of noninvasive electrocardiology : the official journal of the International Society for Holter and Noninvasive Electrocardiology, Inc · 2024
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Heart rate variability and atrial fibrillation in the general population: a longitudinal and Mendelian randomization study.Clinical research in cardiology : official journal of the German Cardiac Society · 2023
    Article
  17. Observational
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 7 institutions in 1 country.

Mohammadali HabibiCardiology Division, the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland. Electronic address: mhabibi3@jhmi.edu.
Harjit ChahalMedstar Heart and Vascular Institute, Washington, District of Columbia.
Philip GreenlandDepartments of Preventive Medicine and Medicine, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, Illinois.
Eliseo GuallarDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland.
João A C LimaCardiology Division, the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland.
Elsayed Z SolimanWake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, North Carolina.
Alvaro AlonsoDepartment of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia.
Susan R HeckbertDepartment of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.
Saman NazarianDivision of Cardiology, Section for Cardiac Electrophysiology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Johns Hopkins University · USEmory University · USMedStar Heart & Vascular Institute · USNorthwestern University · USUniversity of Pennsylvania · USUniversity of Washington · USWake Forest University · US

Funding

Institute for Clinical and Translational ResearchUL1TR001079 · NCATS · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI FORD, DANIEL ERNEST · 2013 to 2017
$60.1M
Wake Forest Clinical and Translational Science AwardUL1TR001420 · NCATS · WAKE FOREST UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI ARD, JAMY D, FOLEY, KRISTIE L · 2015 to 2023
$32.3M
Clinical and Translational Science AwardUL1TR000040 · NCATS · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI GINSBERG, HENRY N · 2012 to 2015
$26.2M
Atrial fibrillation burden, vascular disease of the brain and cardiac MRI in MESAR01HL127659 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI HECKBERT, SUSAN R · 2015 to 2018
$7.4M
Cigarette Smoke and Susceptibility to Influenza InfectionR01HL095163 · NHLBI · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI JASPERS, ILONA, NOAH, TERRY L · 2009 to 2013
$2.0M
Adjunctive Use of Apyrase to Fibrinolytic TherapyR44HL095169 · NHLBI · APT THERAPEUTICS, INC. · PI CHEN, RIDONG · 2012 to 2013
$1.3M
SUBCLINICAL CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE STUDYN01HC095166 · HC · UNIVERSITY OF VERMONT &ST AGRIC COLLEGE · PI TRACY, RUSSELL P · 1999 to 2001
$758k
SUBCLINICAL CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE STUDY-FIELD CENTERN01HC095162 · HC · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI SZKLO, MOYSES A · 1999 to 2000
$694k
SUBCLINICAL CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE STUDY--FIELD CENTERN01HC095161 · HC · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI SHEA, STEVEN · 1999 to 2001
$642k
SUBCLINICAL CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE STUDY--FIELD CENTERN01HC095165 · HC · WAKE FOREST UNIVERSITY · PI BURKE, GREGORY L · 1999 to 2001
$616k
Mentoring in patient-oriented atrial fibrillation and cardiovascular researchK24HL148521 · NHLBI · EMORY UNIVERSITY · PI ALONSO, ALVARO · 2019 to 2023
$593k
Longitudinal Methods for Cardiovascular Disease ResearchR01HL103729 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI MCCLELLAND, ROBYN LEAGH · 2011 to 2013
$592k
American Heart Association-American Stroke Association 16EIA26410001NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR000040NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001079NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001420NHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201500003CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201500003INHLBI NIH HHS K24 HL148521NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095159NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095160NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095161NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095162NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095163NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095164NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095165NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095166NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095167NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095168NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095169NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL103729NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL127659
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Evidence suggests an association between autonomical nervous system (ANS) function and atrial fibrillation (AF) development. We sought to examine the association of baseline resting heart rate (RHR) and short-term heart rate variability (HRV) as surrogates of (ANS) with incident AF in individuals without previous cardiovascular disease. A total of 6,261 participants of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis who were free of AF and diagnosed cardiovascular disease were enrolled. Three standard 10-second, 12-lead electrocardiograms (ECG) were used to measure RHR, the standard deviation of normal-to-normal intervals (SDNN) and the root mean square of successive differences in RR intervals (RMSSD). Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for demographics, atrioventricular nodal agents, and known cardiovascular risk factors were used to examine the association of baseline RHR, and log transformed SDNN and RMSDD with incident AF. Over a mean follow-up of 11.3 ± 3.7 years, 754 (12%) participants developed AF. Spline curve analysis revealed a nonlinear association between RHR, HRV, and incident AF. In fully adjusted models higher (but not lower) baseline RHR (RHR >76 beats/min) was associated with incident AF (hazard ratio 1.48 95% confidence interval 1.18 to 1.86). Additionally, lower values of RMSDD and SDNN and higher values of RMSDD were independently associated with incident AF. In conclusion, cardiac ANS dysregulation indicated as higher RHR and lower HRV is associated with incident AF independent of known cardiovascular risk factors.

Indexed as

ElectrocardiographyEthnicityAgedAged, 80 and overAtherosclerosisAtrial FibrillationFemaleHeart Conduction SystemHeart RateHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedRestRetrospective StudiesRisk Factors

Identifiers

PMID31575421
PMCPMC6939867
OpenAlexW2971924761

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.