ReviewJOR spine2019
Prognostic factors in the progression of intervertebral disc degeneration: Which patient should be targeted with regenerative therapies?
Review in JOR spine, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Sarcopenia as a predictor of poor functional outcome of cervical spine surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Neurosurgical review · 2025Pooled it
- Does paraspinal muscle morphometry predict functional status and re-operation after lumbar spinal surgery? A systematic review and meta-analysis.European radiology · 2023Pooled it
- ISSLS Prize in Clinical Science 2026: Data-driven classification of lumbar spine degeneration trajectories in chronic low back pain.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2026Article
- Article
- Spinal phenotypes on MRI and X-ray alone cannot predict short-term progression of lumbar disc degeneration.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2025Article
- Effect of Long-Term Smoking on Cervical Disc Degeneration: A Retrospective Study.Medical science monitor : international medical journal of experimental and clinical research · 2025Article
- Article
- Assessment of Tie2-Rejuvenated Nucleus Pulposus Cell Transplants from Young and Old Patient Sources Demonstrates That Age Still Matters.International journal of molecular sciences · 2024Article
- Review
- Causal relationship of interferon-γ and interleukin-18 upstream of intervertebral disc degeneration pathogenesis: a two-sample Mendelian randomization study.Frontiers in neurology · 2024Article
- ISSLS prize in clinical science 2022: accelerated disc degeneration after pubertal growth spurt differentiates adults with low back pain from their asymptomatic peers.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2022Observational
- Clinical Development of Regenerative Medicine Targeted for Intervertebral Disc Disease.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2022Review
- Novel Magnetic Resonance Imaging Tools for the Diagnosis of Degenerative Disc Disease: A Narrative Review.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Review
- Architecture-Promoted Biomechanical Performance-Tuning of Tissue-Engineered Constructs for Biological Intervertebral Disc Replacement.Materials (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Hub Genes and Key Pathways of Intervertebral Disc Degeneration: Bioinformatics Analysis and Validation.BioMed research international · 2021Article
- Prognostic factors in the progression of intervertebral disc degeneration: Which patient should be targeted with regenerative therapies?JOR spine · 2019Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivePossible regenerative treatments for lumbar intervertebral disc degeneration (DD) are rapidly emerging. There is consensus that the patient that would benefit most has early-stage DD, with a predicted deterioration in the near future. To identify this patient, the aim of this study was to identify prognostic factors for progression of DD. STUDY
designSystematic review.
methodsA systematic search was performed on studies evaluating one or more prognostic factor(s) in the progression of DD. The criteria for inclusion were (a) patients diagnosed with DD on MRI, (b) progression of DD at follow-up, and (c) reporting of one or more prognostic factor(s) in progression of DD. Two authors independently assessed the methodological quality of the included studies. Due to heterogeneity in DD determinants and outcomes, only a best-evidence synthesis could be conducted.
resultsThe search generated 3165 references, of which 16 studies met our inclusion criteria, involving 2.423 patients. Within these, a total of 23 clinical and environmental and 12 imaging factors were identified. There was strong evidence that disc herniation at baseline is associated with progression of DD at follow-up. There is limited evidence that IL6 rs1800795 genotype G/C male was associated with no progression of DD. Some clinical or environmental factors such as BMI, occupation and smoking were not associated with progression.
conclusionsDisc herniation is strongly associated with the progression of DD. Surprisingly, there was strong evidence that smoking, occupation, and several other factors were not associated with the progression of DD. Only one genetic variant may have a protective effect on progression, otherwise there was conflicting or only limited evidence for most prognostic factors. Future research into these prognostic factors with conflicting and limited evidence is not only needed to determine which patients should be targeted by regenerative therapies, but will also contribute to spinal phenotyping.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.