ArticlePloS one2019
Forecasting the impact of population ageing on tuberculosis incidence.
Article in PloS one, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 18 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 30 citations in OpenAlex.
- Incorporating human dynamic populations in models of infectious disease transmission: a systematic review.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Pooled it
- Host immunosenescence compromisesAging · 2026Article
- A global analysis of patterns of tuberculosis exposure and transmission.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Tuberculosis: An Ongoing Global Threat.Advances in experimental medicine and biology · 2026Review
- The impact of population aging on tuberculosis prevention and control in Shanghai: a prediction based on age-period-cohort models.Aging clinical and experimental research · 2025Article
- Temporal trends in incidence and mortality from pulmonary tuberculosis: time series study, Sul da Bahia, 2010-2023.Epidemiologia e servicos de saude : revista do Sistema Unico de Saude do Brasil · 2025Article
- Effect of population aging on pulmonary tuberculosis burden in Zhejiang Province, China: a population-based study.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- High all-cause mortality and increasing proportion of older adults with tuberculosis in Texas, 2008-2020.Epidemiology and infection · 2024Article
- Disease Transmission by Patients With Subclinical Tuberculosis.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2023Article
- Tuberculosis epidemiological trend in Sousse, Tunisia during twenty years (2000-2019).The Libyan journal of medicine · 2022Article
- Article
- Prevalence of latent tuberculosis infection among participants of the national LTBI screening program in South Korea - A problem of low coverage rate with current LTBI strategy.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Tuberculosis forecasting and temporal trends by sex and age in a high endemic city in northeastern Brazil: where were we before the Covid-19 pandemic?BMC infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Population aging and trends of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in the elderly.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Forecasting tuberculosis using diabetes-related google trends data.Pathogens and global health · 2020Article
- Patient pathways of tuberculosis care-seeking and treatment: an individual-level analysis of National Health Insurance data in Taiwan.BMJ global health · 2020Article
- Secular Seasonality and Trend Forecasting of Tuberculosis Incidence Rate in China Using the Advanced Error-Trend-Seasonal Framework.Infection and drug resistance · 2020Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
2 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundTuberculosis (TB) disease reactivates from distant latent infection or recent (re)infection. Progression risks increase with age. Across the World Health Organisation Western Pacific region, many populations are ageing and have the highest per capita TB incidence rates in older age groups. However, methods for analysing age-specific TB incidence and forecasting epidemic trends while accounting for demographic change remain limited.
methodsWe applied the Lee-Carter models, which were originally developed for mortality modelling, to model the temporal trends in age-specific TB incidence data from 2005 to 2018 in Taiwan. Females and males were modelled separately. We combined our demographic forecasts, and age-specific TB incidence forecasts to project TB incidence until 2035. We compared TB incidence projections with demography fixed in 2018 to projections accounting for demographic change.
resultsOur models quantified increasing incidence rates with age and declining temporal trends. By 2035, the forecast suggests that the TB incidence rate in Taiwan will decrease by 54% (95% Prediction Interval (PI): 45%-59%) compared to 2015, while most age-specific incidence rates will reduce by more than 60%. In 2035, adults aged 65 and above will make up 78% of incident TB cases. Forecast TB incidence in 2035 accounting for demographic change will be 39% (95% PI: 36%-42%) higher than without population ageing.
conclusionsAge-specific incidence forecasts coupled with demographic forecasts can inform the impact of population ageing on TB epidemics. The TB control programme in Taiwan should develop plans specific to older age groups and their care needs.
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