ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2019
Future epidemiological and economic impacts of universal influenza vaccines.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 24 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed, 47 citations in OpenAlex.
- Advances in the Development of a Universal Influenza Vaccine.Antibodies (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- PB1 mutations as key drivers of influenza A virus evolution.Frontiers in microbiology · 2026Review
- Comparing Moderna's mRNA-1083 and Pfizer's dual-target mRNA vaccines for influenza and COVID-19.NPJ vaccines · 2025Review
- Drug-Fc conjugate CD388 targets influenza virus neuraminidase and is broadly protective in mice.Nature microbiology · 2025Article
- Article
- Quantitatively Mapping Immune Control during Influenza.Current opinion in systems biology · 2024Article
- Identification and In Silico Characterization of a Conserved Peptide on Influenza Hemagglutinin Protein: A New Potential Antigen for Universal Influenza Vaccine Development.Nanomaterials (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Segmented, Negative-Sense RNA Viruses of Humans: Genetic Systems and Experimental Uses of Reporter Strains.Annual review of virology · 2023Review
- Protective Efficacy of a Mucosal Influenza Vaccine Formulation Based on the Recombinant Nucleoprotein Co-Administered with a TLR2/6 Agonist BPPcysMPEG.Pharmaceutics · 2023Article
- Review
- Antiviral Polymer Brushes by Visible-Light-Induced, Oxygen-Tolerant Covalent Surface Coating.ACS omega · 2022Article
- Message in a bottle: mRNA vaccination for influenza.The Journal of general virology · 2022Article
- Modeling the population-level impact of treatment on COVID-19 disease and SARS-CoV-2 transmission.Epidemics · 2022Article
- Human seasonal influenza under COVID-19 and the potential consequences of influenza lineage elimination.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Effect of vaccine efficacy on disease transmission with age-structured.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2022Article
- Estimating the Impact of Low Influenza Activity in 2020 on Population Immunity and Future Influenza Seasons in the United States.Open forum infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Modelling the impact of universal influenza vaccines on seasonal influenza with different subtypes.Epidemiology and infection · 2021Article
- A recombinant herpes virus expressing influenza hemagglutinin confers protection and induces antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021Article
- Spatial transmission network construction of influenza-like illness using dynamic Bayesian network and vector-autoregressive moving average model.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Bacteriophage T4 Vaccine Platform for Next-Generation Influenza Vaccine Development.Frontiers in immunology · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
7 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
The efficacy of influenza vaccines, currently at 44%, is limited by the rapid antigenic evolution of the virus and a manufacturing process that can lead to vaccine mismatch. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) recently identified the development of a universal influenza vaccine with an efficacy of at least 75% as a high scientific priority. The US Congress approved $130 million funding for the 2019 fiscal year to support the development of a universal vaccine, and another $1 billion over 5 y has been proposed in the Flu Vaccine Act. Using a model of influenza transmission, we evaluated the population-level impacts of universal influenza vaccines distributed according to empirical age-specific coverage at multiple scales in the United States. We estimate that replacing just 10% of typical seasonal vaccines with 75% efficacious universal vaccines would avert ∼5.3 million cases, 81,000 hospitalizations, and 6,300 influenza-related deaths per year. This would prevent over $1.1 billion in direct health care costs compared to a typical season, based on average data from the 2010-11 to 2018-19 seasons. A complete replacement of seasonal vaccines with universal vaccines is projected to prevent 17 million cases, 251,000 hospitalizations, 19,500 deaths, and $3.5 billion in direct health care costs. States with high per-hospitalization medical expenses along with a large proportion of elderly residents are expected to receive the maximum economic benefit. Replacing even a fraction of seasonal vaccines with universal vaccines justifies the substantial cost of vaccine development.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.