Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31535037›Full record

ArticleNature sustainability2019

The Role of Movement Restrictions in Limiting the Economic Impact of Livestock Infections.

M J Tildesley, S Brand, E Brooks Pollock, N V Bradbury, M Werkman, M J Keeling

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature sustainability, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed
3.1field-weighted citation impact, top 9% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed, 28 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
  2. Knowledge mapping of risk mitigation measures against vector-borne diseases.EFSA journal. European Food Safety Authority · 2026
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  7. Article
  8. Farmers' preferences forFrontiers in veterinary science · 2025
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

M J TildesleyZeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, United Kingdom.
S BrandZeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, United Kingdom.
E Brooks PollockBristol Veterinary School, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TH, United Kingdom.
N V BradburyZeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, United Kingdom.
M WerkmanLondon Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research (LCNTDR), Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
M J KeelingZeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, United Kingdom.
University of Warwick · GBLondon Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research · GBUniversity of Bristol · GB

Funding

Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council BB/K010972/4
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Movements are essential for the economic success of the livestock industry. These movements however bring the risk of long-range spread of infection, potentially bringing infection to previously disease-free areas where subsequent localised transmission can be devastating. Mechanistic predictive models usually consider controls that minimize the number of livestock affected without considering other costs of an ongoing epidemic. However, it is more appropriate to consider the economic burden, as movement restrictions have major consequences for the economic revenue of farms. Using mechanistic models of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), bluetongue virus (BTV) and bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in the UK, we contrast the economically optimal control strategies for these diseases. We show that for FMD, the optimal strategy is to ban movements in a small radius around infected farms; the balance between disease control and maintaining 'business as usual' varies between regions. For BTV and bTB, we find that the cost of any movement ban is more than the epidemiological benefits due to the low within-farm prevalence and slow rate of disease spread. This work suggests that movement controls need to be carefully matched to the epidemiological and economic consequences of the disease, and optimal movement bans are often far shorter than existing policy.

Identifiers

PMID31535037
PMCPMC6751075
OpenAlexW2957091698

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.