ArticleeLife2019
Phylodynamic theory of persistence, extinction and speciation of rapidly adapting pathogens.
Article in eLife, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers.
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Who cites it
29 citing papers in PubMed.
- Exogenous amdoparvoviruses (Parvoviridae) in arvicoline voles: the molecular evolution and ecology of a novel host-viral association.PLoS pathogens · 2026Article
- Unraveling the mechanism behind the probable extinction of the B/Yamagata lineage of influenza B viruses.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Ecological diversification in rapidly evolving populations.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Frequency-dependent fitness effects are ubiquitous.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- A minimal model of panimmunity maintenance by horizontal gene transfer in the ecological dynamics of bacteria and phages.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Trait-space patterning is dictated by the tempo and mode of mutation.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Article
- Characterization of Conserved Evolution in H7N9 Avian Influenza Virus Prior Mass Vaccination.Virulence · 2024Article
- COVID-19 pandemic interventions reshaped the global dispersal of seasonal influenza viruses.Science (New York, N.Y.) · 2024Article
- Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States.eLife · 2024Article
- A speed limit on serial strain replacement from original antigenic sin.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- A speed limit on serial strain replacement from original antigenic sin.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2024Article
- Evolutionary stability of antigenically escaping viruses.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Evolutionary implications of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination for the future design of vaccination strategies.Communications medicine · 2023Review
- Article
- Antigenic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in immunocompromised hosts.Evolution, medicine, and public health · 2023Article
- Ecological and evolutionary dynamics of multi-strain RNA viruses.Nature ecology & evolution · 2022Review
- Immunity-induced criticality of the genotype network of influenza A (H3N2) hemagglutinin.PNAS nexus · 2022Article
- Human pathogenic RNA viruses establish noncompeting lineages by occupying independent niches.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Rapidly evolving pathogens like influenza viruses can persist by changing their antigenic properties fast enough to evade the adaptive immunity, yet they rarely split into diverging lineages. By mapping the multi-strain Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model onto the traveling wave model of adapting populations, we demonstrate that persistence of a rapidly evolving, Red-Queen-like state of the pathogen population requires long-ranged cross-immunity and sufficiently large population sizes. This state is unstable and the population goes extinct or 'speciates' into two pathogen strains with antigenic divergence beyond the range of cross-inhibition. However, in a certain range of evolutionary parameters, a single cross-inhibiting population can exist for times long compared to the time to the most recent common ancestor ([Formula: see text]) and gives rise to phylogenetic patterns typical of influenza virus. We demonstrate that the rate of speciation is related to fluctuations of [Formula: see text] and construct a 'phase diagram' identifying different phylodynamic regimes as a function of evolutionary parameters.
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