Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31531817›Full record

ArticleDigestive diseases and sciences2020

Predicting 30-Day Hospital Readmission Risk in a National Cohort of Patients with Cirrhosis.

Jejo D Koola, Sam B Ho, Aize Cao, Guanhua Chen, Amy M Perkins, Sharon E Davis, Michael E Matheny

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Digestive diseases and sciences, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed
2.6field-weighted citation impact, top 9% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed, 27 citations in OpenAlex.

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  7. Measuring Medication Use, Obstacles, and Knowledge in Individuals With Cirrhosis.Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association · 2023
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  11. Review
  12. Patient-Reported Outcome Measures Modestly Enhance Prediction of Readmission in Patients with Cirrhosis.Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association · 2022
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.

Jejo D KoolaTennessee Valley Healthcare System (TVHS) VA Medical Center, Veterans Health Administration, Nashville, TN, USA. jkoola@ucsd.edu.ORCID 0000-0001-5171-8475
Sam B HoVA San Diego Healthcare System, San Diego, CA, USA.
Aize CaoTennessee Valley Healthcare System (TVHS) VA Medical Center, Veterans Health Administration, Nashville, TN, USA.
Guanhua ChenDepartment of Biostatistics and Medical Informatics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA.
Amy M PerkinsDepartment of Biostatistics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN, USA.
Sharon E DavisDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN, USA.
Michael E MathenyTennessee Valley Healthcare System (TVHS) VA Medical Center, Veterans Health Administration, Nashville, TN, USA.
Veterans Health Administration · USVanderbilt University Medical Center · USUniversity of California San Diego · USUniversity of Wisconsin–Madison · US

Funding

Enhancing All of Us Data Resources for Nutrition Precision Health: the All of Us Data and Research CenterU2COD023196 · OD · VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER · PI GLAZER, DAVID, HARRIS, PAUL A. · 2016 to 2022
$143.7M
Vanderbilt Biomedical Informatics Training ProgramT15LM007450 · NLM · VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY · PI Jessica S. Ancker, Bradley A. Malin · 2002 to 2026
$19.7M
Automated Surveillance and Intervention among Patients with Liver CirrhosisI01HX001284 · VA · VETERANS HEALTH ADMINISTRATION · PI HO, SAMUEL BENJAMIN, MATHENY, MICHAEL E. · 2014 to 2020
–
EPA EP-D-13-052HSRD VA I01 HX001284NIH HHS 1U2COD023196NIH HHS U2C OD023196NLM NIH HHS 5T15LM007450
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundEarly hospital readmission for patients with cirrhosis continues to challenge the healthcare system. Risk stratification may help tailor resources, but existing models were designed using small, single-institution cohorts or had modest performance.

aimsWe leveraged a large clinical database from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) to design a readmission risk model for patients hospitalized with cirrhosis. Additionally, we analyzed potentially modifiable or unexplored readmission risk factors.

methodsA national VA retrospective cohort of patients with a history of cirrhosis hospitalized for any reason from January 1, 2006, to November 30, 2013, was developed from 123 centers. Using 174 candidate variables within demographics, laboratory results, vital signs, medications, diagnoses and procedures, and healthcare utilization, we built a 47-variable penalized logistic regression model with the outcome of all-cause 30-day readmission. We excluded patients who left against medical advice, transferred to a non-VA facility, or if the hospital length of stay was greater than 30 days. We evaluated calibration and discrimination across variable volume and compared the performance to recalibrated preexisting risk models for readmission.

resultsWe analyzed 67,749 patients and 179,298 index hospitalizations. The 30-day readmission rate was 23%. Ascites was the most common cirrhosis-related cause of index hospitalization and readmission. The AUC of the model was 0.670 compared to existing models (0.649, 0.566, 0.577). The Brier score of 0.165 showed good calibration.

conclusionOur model achieved better discrimination and calibration compared to existing models, even after local recalibration. Assessment of calibration by variable parsimony revealed performance improvements for increasing variable inclusion well beyond those detectable for discrimination.

Indexed as

AgedCohort StudiesFemaleForecastingHumansLiver CirrhosisMaleMiddle AgedPatient ReadmissionRetrospective StudiesRisk FactorsUnited StatesCalibrationCirrhosisHospital readmissionLogistic regressionRisk prediction

Identifiers

PMID31531817
PMCPMC7073276
OpenAlexW2974866372

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.