Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31513651›Full record

ArticlePLoS pathogens2019

The molecular clock of Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

Fabrizio Menardo, Sebastian Duchêne, Daniela Brites, Sebastien Gagneux

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PLoS pathogens, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 87 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
87citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

87 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. ClinicalFrontiers in microbiology · 2025
    Pooled it
  2. Article
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  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Genomic epidemiology ofMicrobial genomics · 2026
    Article
  7. Gene conversion is a key driver of diversity hotspots inbioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Subpopulations in clinical samples ofJAC-antimicrobial resistance · 2025
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. UShER-TB: Scalable, Comprehensive, Accessible Phylogenomic Analysis ofmedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article

27 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Fabrizio MenardoDepartment of Medical Parasitology and Infection Biology, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-7885-4482
Sebastian DuchêneDepartment of Microbiology and Immunology, Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-2863-0907
Daniela BritesDepartment of Medical Parasitology and Infection Biology, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-8090-2287
Sebastien GagneuxDepartment of Medical Parasitology and Infection Biology, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The molecular clock and its phylogenetic applications to genomic data have changed how we study and understand one of the major human pathogens, Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB), the etiologic agent of tuberculosis. Genome sequences of MTB strains sampled at different times are increasingly used to infer when a particular outbreak begun, when a drug-resistant clone appeared and expanded, or when a strain was introduced into a specific region. Despite the growing importance of the molecular clock in tuberculosis research, there is a lack of consensus as to whether MTB displays a clocklike behavior and about its rate of evolution. Here we performed a systematic study of the molecular clock of MTB on a large genomic data set (6,285 strains), covering different epidemiological settings and most of the known global diversity. We found that sampling times below 15-20 years were often insufficient to calibrate the clock of MTB. For data sets where such calibration was possible, we obtained a clock rate between 1x10-8 and 5x10-7 nucleotide changes per-site-per-year (0.04-2.2 SNPs per-genome-per-year), with substantial differences between clades. These estimates were not strongly dependent on the time of the calibration points as they changed only marginally when we used epidemiological isolates (sampled in the last 40 years) or three ancient DNA samples (about 1,000 years old) to calibrate the tree. Additionally, the uncertainty and the discrepancies in the results of different methods were sometimes large, highlighting the importance of using different methods, and of considering carefully their assumptions and limitations.

Indexed as

Bayes TheoremBiological ClocksDNA, BacterialEvolution, MolecularGenome, BacterialHumansModels, BiologicalMolecular EpidemiologyMycobacterium bovisMycobacterium tuberculosisPhylogenyPolymorphism, Single NucleotideTime FactorsTuberculosisDNA, Bacterial

Identifiers

PMID31513651
PMCPMC6759198

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.