Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31511236›Full record

SynthesisBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2019

Trends in incidence of total or type 2 diabetes: systematic review.

Dianna J Magliano, Rakibul M Islam, Elizabeth L M Barr, Edward W Gregg, Meda E Pavkov, Jessica L Harding, Maryam Tabesh, Digsu N Koye, Jonathan E Shaw

Open access · hybridAbstract readSystematic Review
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Synthesis in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 177 papers, 12 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
177citing papers in PubMed, 12 pooled it
25.0field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

177 citing papers in PubMed, 12 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 346 citations in OpenAlex.

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  15. Type 2 diabetes in Norway 2009-2021: Have declining incidence rates continued?Diabetic medicine : a journal of the British Diabetic Association · 2026
    Article
  16. Predicting stroke risk using retinal imaging with artificial intelligence: a scoping review of current evidence.Graefe's archive for clinical and experimental ophthalmology = Albrecht von Graefes Archiv fur klinische und experimentelle Ophthalmologie · 2026
    Review
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117 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 2 institutions in 3 countries.

Dianna J MaglianoBaker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia dianna.magliano@baker.edu.au.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9507-6096
Rakibul M IslamBaker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.
Elizabeth L M BarrBaker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.
Edward W GreggCentres for Diseases Control and Prevention, Division of Diabetes Translation, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Meda E PavkovCentres for Diseases Control and Prevention, Division of Diabetes Translation, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Jessica L HardingCentres for Diseases Control and Prevention, Division of Diabetes Translation, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Maryam TabeshBaker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.
Digsu N KoyeBaker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.
Jonathan E ShawBaker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.
Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute · AUCenters for Disease Control and Prevention · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo assess what proportions of studies reported increasing, stable, or declining trends in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes.

designSystematic review of studies reporting trends of diabetes incidence in adults from 1980 to 2017 according to PRISMA guidelines. DATA SOURCES: Medline, Embase, CINAHL, and reference lists of relevant publications. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies of open population based cohorts, diabetes registries, and administrative and health insurance databases on secular trends in the incidence of total diabetes or type 2 diabetes in adults were included. Poisson regression was used to model data by age group and year.

resultsAmong the 22 833 screened abstracts, 47 studies were included, providing data on 121 separate sex specific or ethnicity specific populations; 42 (89%) of the included studies reported on diagnosed diabetes. In 1960-89, 36% (8/22) of the populations studied had increasing trends in incidence of diabetes, 55% (12/22) had stable trends, and 9% (2/22) had decreasing trends. In 1990-2005, diabetes incidence increased in 66% (33/50) of populations, was stable in 32% (16/50), and decreased in 2% (1/50). In 2006-14, increasing trends were reported in only 33% (11/33) of populations, whereas 30% (10/33) and 36% (12/33) had stable or declining incidence, respectively.

conclusionsThe incidence of clinically diagnosed diabetes has continued to rise in only a minority of populations studied since 2006, with over a third of populations having a fall in incidence in this time period. Preventive strategies could have contributed to the fall in diabetes incidence in recent years. Data are limited in low and middle income countries, where trends in diabetes incidence could be different. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: Prospero CRD42018092287.

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2Global Burden of DiseaseHumansIncidence

Identifiers

PMID31511236
PMCPMC6737490
OpenAlexW2972605348

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.