Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31504998›Full record

ArticleSystematic biology2020

19 Dubious Ways to Compute the Marginal Likelihood of a Phylogenetic Tree Topology.

Mathieu Fourment, Andrew F Magee, Chris Whidden, Arman Bilge, Frederick A Matsen, Vladimir N Minin

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Systematic biology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 32 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
32citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

32 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Trial
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Phylogenetic networks empower biodiversity research.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Review
  13. Differentiable phylogeneticsBioinformatics advances · 2024
    Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Likelihood-Based Tests of Species Tree Hypotheses.Molecular biology and evolution · 2023
    Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Mathieu FourmentUniversity of Technology Sydney, ithree Institute, Ultimo NSW 2007, Australia.
Andrew F MageeDepartment of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
Chris WhiddenFred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA.
Arman BilgeFred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA.
Frederick A MatsenFred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA.
Vladimir N MininDepartment of Statistics, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.

Funding

Understanding Transmission with Integrated Genetic and Epidemiologic InferenceU54GM111274 · NIGMS · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI HALLORAN, M ELIZABETH · 2014 to 2018
$12.5M
FHCRC High-Performance Computing ClusterS10OD020069 · OD · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI KOOPERBERG, CHARLES L · 2015 to 2015
$600k
Howard Hughes Medical InstituteNIGMS NIH HHS U54 GM111274NIH HHS S10 OD020069
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The marginal likelihood of a model is a key quantity for assessing the evidence provided by the data in support of a model. The marginal likelihood is the normalizing constant for the posterior density, obtained by integrating the product of the likelihood and the prior with respect to model parameters. Thus, the computational burden of computing the marginal likelihood scales with the dimension of the parameter space. In phylogenetics, where we work with tree topologies that are high-dimensional models, standard approaches to computing marginal likelihoods are very slow. Here, we study methods to quickly compute the marginal likelihood of a single fixed tree topology. We benchmark the speed and accuracy of 19 different methods to compute the marginal likelihood of phylogenetic topologies on a suite of real data sets under the JC69 model. These methods include several new ones that we develop explicitly to solve this problem, as well as existing algorithms that we apply to phylogenetic models for the first time. Altogether, our results show that the accuracy of these methods varies widely, and that accuracy does not necessarily correlate with computational burden. Our newly developed methods are orders of magnitude faster than standard approaches, and in some cases, their accuracy rivals the best established estimators.

Indexed as

PhylogenyClassificationComputational BiologyLikelihood FunctionsBayesian inferenceevidenceimportance samplingmodel selectionvariational Bayes

Identifiers

PMID31504998
PMCPMC7571498

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.