ArticleJournal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA2019
Prognostic models will be victims of their own success, unless….
Article in Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 53 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
53 citing papers in PubMed.
- Scoping review of methodology for aiding generalisability and transportability of clinical prediction models.Diagnostic and prognostic research · 2026Review
- Post-Market Surveillance of Predictive Decision Support Tools in the Presence of Confounding Medical Interventions using Causal Inference.Research square · 2026Article
- Design and Early Evaluation of an Algorithmovigilance System.Studies in health technology and informatics · 2026Article
- Emerging multidimensional biomarker system for cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome: from multi-omics integration to clinical artificial intelligence.Cardiovascular diabetology · 2026Review
- An Introduction to Competing Risks in Epidemiology.Clinical epidemiology · 2026Review
- Improving Survival Models in Health Care by Balancing Imbalanced Cohorts: A Novel Approach.JCO clinical cancer informatics · 2026Article
- Machine learning-based risk prediction model development for acute kidney injury in type 2 myocardial infarction patients.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Human-centered design of an artificial intelligence monitoring system: the Vanderbilt Algorithmovigilance Monitoring and Operations System.JAMIA open · 2025Article
- Feedback loops in intensive care unit prognostic models: an under-recognised threat to clinical validity.The Lancet. Digital health · 2025Review
- Monitoring strategies for continuous evaluation of deployed clinical prediction models.Journal of biomedical informatics · 2025Article
- Understanding the evidence for artificial intelligence in healthcare.BMJ quality & safety · 2025Article
- Beyond Model Performance: Information Needs for an Algorithmovigilance Sociotechnical System.Studies in health technology and informatics · 2025Article
- Article
- When accurate prediction models yield harmful self-fulfilling prophecies.Patterns (New York, N.Y.) · 2025Article
- The early warning paradox.NPJ digital medicine · 2025Article
- Artificial intelligence for cardiac imaging is ready for widespread clinical use: Pro Con debate AI for cardiac imaging.BJR open · 2025Review
- Improving survival models in healthcare: a novel matching approach.Research square · 2024Article
- Seeing the random forest through the decision trees. Supporting learning health systems from histopathology with machine learning models: Challenges and opportunities.Journal of pathology informatics · 2024Review
- Development and assessment of a machine learning tool for predicting emergency admission in Scotland.NPJ digital medicine · 2024Article
- Integrative nomogram model based on anoikis-related genes enhances prognostic evaluation in colorectal cancer.Heliyon · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Predictive analytics have begun to change the workflows of healthcare by giving insight into our future health. Deploying prognostic models into clinical workflows should change behavior and motivate interventions that affect outcomes. As users respond to model predictions, downstream characteristics of the data, including the distribution of the outcome, may change. The ever-changing nature of healthcare necessitates maintenance of prognostic models to ensure their longevity. The more effective a model and intervention(s) are at improving outcomes, the faster a model will appear to degrade. Improving outcomes can disrupt the association between the model's predictors and the outcome. Model refitting may not always be the most effective response to these challenges. These problems will need to be mitigated by systematically incorporating interventions into prognostic models and by maintaining robust performance surveillance of models in clinical use. Holistically modeling the outcome and intervention(s) can lead to resilience to future compromises in performance.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.