Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31504213›Full record

ArticleThe journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences2020

The Predictive Performance of Objective Measures of Physical Activity Derived From Accelerometry Data for 5-Year All-Cause Mortality in Older Adults: National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey 2003-2006.

Ekaterina Smirnova, Andrew Leroux, Quy Cao, Lucia Tabacu, Vadim Zipunnikov, Ciprian Crainiceanu, Jacek K Urbanek

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Article in The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 43 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

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0cells of the map it votes in
43citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

43 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Timing of physical activity within the 24-hour day and its influence on health: a systematic review.Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice · 2022
    Pooled it
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  3. Observational
  4. Functional quantile principal component analysis.Biostatistics (Oxford, England) · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Ekaterina SmirnovaDepartment of Biostatistics, School of Medicine, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond.
Andrew LerouxDepartment of Biostatistics, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland.
Quy CaoDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, College of Humanities and Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula.
Lucia TabacuDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia.
Vadim ZipunnikovDepartment of Biostatistics, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland.
Ciprian CrainiceanuDepartment of Biostatistics, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland.
Jacek K UrbanekDivision of Geriatric Medicine, and Gerontology, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine.

Funding

EPIDEMIOLOGY AND BIOSTATISTICS OF AGINGT32AG000247 · NIA · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI Karen J. Bandeen-Roche · 1996 to 2026
$13.2M
Statistical Methods for Multilevel Multivariate Functional StudiesR01NS060910 · NINDS · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI Ciprian M Crainiceanu · 2009 to 2026
$8.3M
Statistical methods for analyzing objectively measured physical activity dataR01HL130483 · NHLBI · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI Chongzhi Di · 2016 to 2026
$4.4M
Statistical methods for biosignals with varying domainsR01HL123407 · NHLBI · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI CRAINICEANU, CIPRIAN M · 2014 to 2017
$1.6M
NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL123407NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL130483NIA NIH HHS T32 AG000247NINDS NIH HHS R01 NS060910
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundDeclining physical activity (PA) is a hallmark of aging. Wearable technology provides reliable measures of the frequency, duration, intensity, and timing of PA. Accelerometry-derived measures of PA are compared with established predictors of 5-year all-cause mortality in older adults in terms of individual, relative, and combined predictive performance.

methodsParticipants aged between 50 and 85 years from the 2003-2006 National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (NHANES, n = 2,978) wore a hip-worn accelerometer in the free-living environment for up to 7 days. A total of 33 predictors of 5-year all-cause mortality (number of events = 297), including 20 measures of objective PA, were compared using univariate and multivariate logistic regression.

resultsIn univariate logistic regression, the total activity count was the best predictor of 5-year mortality (Area under the Curve (AUC) = 0.771) followed by age (AUC = 0.758). Overall, 9 of the top 10 predictors were objective PA measures (AUC from 0.771 to 0.692). In multivariate regression, the 10-fold cross-validated AUC was 0.798 for the model without objective PA variables (9 predictors) and 0.838 for the forward selection model with objective PA variables (13 predictors). The Net Reclassification Index was substantially improved by adding objective PA variables (p < .001).

conclusionsObjective accelerometry-derived PA measures outperform traditional predictors of 5-year mortality, including age. This highlights the importance of wearable technology for providing reproducible, unbiased, and prognostic biomarkers of health.

Indexed as

AccelerometryExerciseMortalityAgedAged, 80 and overAge FactorsFemaleHumansLogistic ModelsMaleMiddle AgedNutrition SurveysRisk FactorsUnited StatesAccelerometryExerciseLongevityPhysical activityPhysical performance

Identifiers

PMID31504213
PMCPMC7494021

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.