ArticleInfection and drug resistance2019
Application of the susceptible-infected-recovered deterministic model in a GII.P17 emergent norovirus strain outbreak in Romania in 2015.
Article in Infection and drug resistance, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Genome characterisation of norovirus GII.P17-GII.17 detected during a large gastroenteritis outbreak in Romania in 2021.Archives of virology · 2023Article
- Forecasting COVID-19 epidemic in India and high incidence states using SIR and logistic growth models.Clinical epidemiology and global healthArticle
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8 authors.
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Abstract
purposeThis study shows the epidemiological profile of the first gastroenteritis outbreak of GII.P17 in the Romanian territory. An outbreak with such large amplitude in a European territory was previously undocumented. PATIENTS AND
methodsUsing a cross-sectional design, with the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) deterministic compartmental model for a fixed population, and the cluster method for establishing the high-incidence zones, we carried out our investigation by means of questionnaires containing personal data, affected collectivities, disease onset and duration, symptoms displayed, medical assistance provided, previous antibiotic intake where applicable, food consumption and water sources, and sanitation conditions. The confirmation of cases was done based on the typical norovirus gastroenteritis symptomatology and using three laboratory confirmations (by molecular diagnosis) for GII.P17-GII.17 genotype noroviruses from three patients.
resultsA gastroenteritis outbreak occurred in October-November 2015, affecting 328 people in Arad, a county in Western Romania, covering 44 neighbouring localities with a total population of 35,440 people. The study detected an inter-human transmission of the infection, with an intrafamilial risk of disease of 2.26 (95% CI 1.76 to 2.90) compared with the community transmission (in school collectivity). The basic reproduction number
conclusionSIR made it possible to highlight the expansion of the emerging norovirus strain infection from community to family collectivities. This study provides practical solutions to limit disease cases, even in the absence of etiology, and shows the importance of sometimes underestimated traditional control methods.
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