ArticleBMC medicine2019
Estimating the burden of dengue and the impact of release of wMel Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in Indonesia: a modelling study.
Article in BMC medicine, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 36 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
36 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to map Aedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Pooled it
- A Systematic Review of Mathematical Models of Dengue Transmission and Vector Control: 2010-2020.Viruses · 2023Pooled it
- Efficacy of Wolbachia-Infected Mosquito Deployments for the Control of Dengue.The New England journal of medicine · 2021Trial
- Mosquito salivary protein antibodies as efficient endpoints for vector control trials: A mechanistic comparison with clinical and entomological outcomes.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- The cost-effectiveness of Wolbachia-based biocontrol interventions for dengue: A scoping review of the available evidence.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Methods for estimating the burden of acute tropical infectious diseases: A scoping review.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Managing and controlling diseases transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes: a review on best practices.Tropical medicine and health · 2026Review
- Estimating dengue force of infection from age-stratified surveillance data in Java, Indonesia.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Rising dengue risk with increasing El Niño-Southern Oscillation amplitude and teleconnections.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Review
- Review
- Why the growth of arboviral diseases necessitates a new generation of global risk maps and future projections.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Review
- Dengue virus genomic surveillance in the applying Wolbachia to eliminate dengue trial reveals genotypic efficacy and disruption of focal transmission.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Mitigating dengue transmission in Africa: the need forFrontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Estimating dengue disease and economic burden to inform municipal-level policymakers: Method for a pragmatic city-level observational cohort study.Gates open research · 2024Observational
- Utility of surveillance data for planning for dengue elimination in Yogyakarta, Indonesia: a scenario-tree modelling approach.BMJ global health · 2023Article
- Quantifying the impact of Wolbachia releases on dengue infection in Townsville, Australia.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Predicting the dengue cluster outbreak dynamics in Yogyakarta, Indonesia: a modelling study.The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia · 2023Article
- An economic evaluation of Wolbachia deployments for dengue control in Vietnam.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
16 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundWolbachia-infected mosquitoes reduce dengue virus transmission, and city-wide releases in Yogyakarta city, Indonesia, are showing promising entomological results. Accurate estimates of the burden of dengue, its spatial distribution and the potential impact of Wolbachia are critical in guiding funder and government decisions on its future wider use.
methodsHere, we combine multiple modelling methods for burden estimation to predict national case burden disaggregated by severity and map the distribution of burden across the country using three separate data sources. An ensemble of transmission models then predicts the estimated reduction in dengue transmission following a nationwide roll-out of wMel Wolbachia.
resultsWe estimate that 7.8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.8-17.7 million) symptomatic dengue cases occurred in Indonesia in 2015 and were associated with 332,865 (UI 94,175-754,203) lost disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The majority of dengue's burden was due to non-severe cases that did not seek treatment or were challenging to diagnose in outpatient settings leading to substantial underreporting. Estimated burden was highly concentrated in a small number of large cities with 90% of dengue cases occurring in 15.3% of land area. Implementing a nationwide Wolbachia population replacement programme was estimated to avert 86.2% (UI 36.2-99.9%) of cases over a long-term average.
conclusionsThese results suggest interventions targeted to the highest burden cities can have a disproportionate impact on dengue burden. Area-wide interventions, such as Wolbachia, that are deployed based on the area covered could protect people more efficiently than individual-based interventions, such as vaccines, in such dense environments.
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