Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31464746›Full record

ArticleThe American journal of gastroenterology2019

Head-to-Head Comparison of the Performance of 17 Risk Models for Predicting Presence of Advanced Neoplasms in Colorectal Cancer Screening.

Le Peng, Yesilda Balavarca, Korbinian Weigl, Michael Hoffmeister, Hermann Brenner

Abstract readComparative Study
In one paragraph

Article in The American journal of gastroenterology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  4. Review
  5. Application of machine-learning model to optimize colonic adenoma detection in India.Indian journal of gastroenterology : official journal of the Indian Society of Gastroenterology · 2024
    Observational
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  14. United European gastroenterology journal · 2020
    Article
  15. A New Comprehensive Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Model Incorporating Family History, Personal Characteristics, and Environmental Factors.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2020
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Le PengDivision of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.
Yesilda BalavarcaDivision of Preventive Oncology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) and National Center for Tumor Diseases (NCT), Heidelberg, Germany.
Korbinian WeiglDivision of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.
Michael HoffmeisterDivision of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.
Hermann BrennerDivision of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesMany risk scores have been proposed to predict presence of advanced colorectal neoplasms, but a comprehensive comparison conducted in the same population is sparse. The aim of this study was to evaluate and directly compare the diagnostic performance of published risk prediction models for advanced colorectal neoplasms.

methodsData were drawn from 2 cohorts of subjects undergoing screening colonoscopy in Germany, i.e., KolosSal (n = 16,195) and BliTz (n = 7,444). Absolute risks and relative risks were generated for the presence of at least 1 advanced neoplasm, taking the lowest risk group as the reference group. Performance of risk models was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and compared by the net reclassification improvement.

resultsThe 2 cohorts included 1,917 (11.8%) and 848 (11.4%) participants with advanced neoplasm, respectively. Absolute risks were mostly between 5% and 10% among participants in the lowest risk group and between 15% and 20% among participants in the highest risk group, and relative risks mostly ranged from 2.0 to 4.0 across the risk models in both cohorts. The AUCs ranged from 0.58 to 0.65 in KolosSal and from 0.57 to 0.61 in BliTz for all risk scores. Compared to models with lower AUC, classification was significantly improved in most models with higher AUC. DISCUSSION: Risk models for advanced colorectal neoplasms generally yielded modest discriminatory power, despite some variation in performance between models. Future studies should evaluate the performance of these risk models in racially diverse populations and investigate possible extensions, such as combination with polygenic risk scores.

Indexed as

AdenomaAgedAge FactorsAlcohol DrinkingAnti-Inflammatory Agents, Non-SteroidalArea Under CurveAspirinBody Mass IndexCarcinomaColorectal NeoplasmsDietEarly Detection of CancerExerciseFemaleGermanyHumansAnti-Inflammatory Agents, Non-SteroidalAspirinPlatelet Aggregation Inhibitors

Identifiers

PMID31464746
PMCPMC6738631

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.