ArticleBMC health services research2019
The use of modelling studies to inform planning of health services: case study of rapidly increasing endoscopy services in Australia.
Article in BMC health services research, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- A Multidisciplinary Strategy for Managing Lower Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Waiting Lists Within the ULSS 3 Serenissima Health Authority in the Venice Metropolitan Area.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Patterns of diagnostic testing for oesophagogastric cancer-related symptoms in Australian primary care: a retrospective cohort study.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2025Article
- Article
- Sustained success in endoscopic performance demonstrated by the Irish National Endoscopy Quality Improvement Programme.Endoscopy international open · 2025Article
- A systematic review of simulation methods applied to cancer care services.Health systems (Basingstoke, England) · 2024Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundDemand for gastrointestinal endoscopy in Australia is increasing as a result of the expanding national bowel cancer screening program and a growing, ageing population. More services are required to meet demand and ensure patients are seen within clinically recommended timeframes.
methodsA discrete event simulation model was developed to project endoscopy waiting list outcomes for two large metropolitan health services encompassing 8 public hospitals in Australia. The model applied routinely collected health service data to forecast the impacts of future endoscopic demand over 5 years and to identify the level of service activity required to address patient waiting times and meet key policy targets. The approach incorporated evidence from the literature to produce estimates of cost-effectiveness by showing longer term costs and Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) associated with service expansion.
resultsThe modelling revealed that doing nothing would lead to the number of patients waiting longer than clinically recommended doubling across each health service within 5 years. A 38% overall increase in the number of monthly procedures available was required to meet and maintain a target of 95-98% of patients being seen within clinically recommended timeframes to the year 2021. This was projected to cost the funder approximately $140 million in additional activity over a 5 year period. Due to improved patient outcomes associated with timely intervention, it was estimated that the increased activity would generate over 22,000 additional QALYs across the two health services. This translated to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $6467 and $5974 per QALY for each health service respectively.
conclusionsDiscrete event simulation modelling provided a rational, data based approach that allowed decision makers to quantify the future demand for endoscopy services and identify cost-effective strategies to meet community needs.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.