Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31462130›Full record

ArticleJournal of the American Heart Association2019

Derivation and Validation of a Novel Cardiac Intensive Care Unit Admission Risk Score for Mortality.

Jacob C Jentzer, Nandan S Anavekar, Courtney Bennett, Dennis H Murphree, Mark T Keegan, Brandon Wiley, David A Morrow, Joseph G Murphy, Malcolm R Bell, Gregory W Barsness

Abstract readValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the American Heart Association, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
35citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

35 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Jacob C JentzerDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine Mayo Clinic Rochester MN.
Nandan S AnavekarDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine Mayo Clinic Rochester MN.
Courtney BennettDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine Mayo Clinic Rochester MN.
Dennis H MurphreeDepartment of Health Sciences Research Mayo Clinic Rochester MN.
Mark T KeeganDepartment of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine Mayo Clinic Rochester MN.
Brandon WileyDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine Mayo Clinic Rochester MN.
David A MorrowTIMI Study Group Cardiovascular Division Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School Boston MA.
Joseph G MurphyDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine Mayo Clinic Rochester MN.
Malcolm R BellDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine Mayo Clinic Rochester MN.
Gregory W BarsnessDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine Mayo Clinic Rochester MN.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background There are no risk scores designed specifically for mortality risk prediction in unselected cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) patients. We sought to develop a novel CICU-specific risk score for prediction of hospital mortality using variables available at the time of CICU admission. Methods and Results A database of CICU patients admitted from January 1, 2007 to April 30, 2018 was divided into derivation and validation cohorts. The top 7 predictors of hospital mortality were identified using stepwise backward regression, then used to develop the Mayo CICU Admission Risk Score (M-CARS), with integer scores ranging from 0 to 10. Discrimination was assessed using area under the receiver-operator curve analysis. Calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. The derivation cohort included 10 004 patients and the validation cohort included 2634 patients (mean age 67.6 years, 37.7% females). Hospital mortality was 9.2%. Predictor variables included in the M-CARS were cardiac arrest, shock, respiratory failure, Braden skin score, blood urea nitrogen, anion gap and red blood cell distribution width at the time of CICU admission. The M-CARS showed a graded relationship with hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.84 for each 1-point increase in M-CARS, 95% CI 1.78-1.89). In the validation cohort, the M-CARS had an area under the receiver-operator curve of 0.86 for hospital mortality, with good calibration (P=0.21). The 47.1% of patients with M-CARS <2 had hospital mortality of 0.8%, and the 5.2% of patients with M-CARS >6 had hospital mortality of 51.6%. Conclusions Using 7 variables available at the time of CICU admission, the M-CARS can predict hospital mortality in unselected CICU patients with excellent discrimination.

Indexed as

Decision Support TechniquesHospital MortalityIntensive Care UnitsPatient AdmissionAgedAged, 80 and overDatabases, FactualFemaleHealth StatusHeart DiseasesHumansMaleMiddle AgedPredictive Value of TestsPrognosisReproducibility of Resultscardiac intensive care unitcoronary care unitmortalityrisk scores

Identifiers

PMID31462130
PMCPMC6755843

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.