Appraisal of the heat vulnerability index in Punjab: a case study of spatial pattern for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity in megacity Lahore, Pakistan.

In this study, the heat vulnerability index has been developed for a megacity Lahore. Although Pakistan stands at 12th rank among highly exposed countries to climate change, very little research has been dedicated in exploring the heat-related vulnerability of exposed populations. We have applied the principal component analysis with varimax rotation on well-established indicators of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to determine the heat vulnerability. This study has resulted in two principal components sharing 70.4% variance. Principal component 1 comprises pre-existing illness, population density, housing density, education, and normalized difference vegetation index with following significant (> 0.4) loading values 0.91, 0.91, 0.91, 0.57, and - 0.773, respectively, and principal component 2 combines the nature of housing material (0.964) followed by the water availability (0.962) and minority status (0.539). The hot spot analysis and overlay analysis have also been applied on the extracted component, and the resultant co-occurrence of high variable class, high vulnerability, and hot spots of vulnerability helped to grip those areas which imperatively require the applications of heat-related health interventions. The heat vulnerability index developed in our study clarifies that the most vulnerable populations are confined in the central vicinities of Lahore and less vulnerable are those which inhibit towards the outskirts of the city.