Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31434652›Full record

ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2019

Association of China's universal two child policy with changes in births and birth related health factors: national, descriptive comparative study.

Hong-Tian Li, Ming Xue, Susan Hellerstein, Yue Cai, Yanqiu Gao, Yali Zhang, Jie Qiao, Jan Blustein, Jian-Meng Liu

Registry-linked trialAbstract readComparative Study
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT06682663 (Evaluation of the Effect of Live Streaming Exercise on the Improvement of Hepatic Steatosis and Fibrosis in Pregnant Women with MASLD and Its Study Based on the Liver-gut Axis Mechanism.), which is not on this map. Cited by 109 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
109citing papers in PubMed, 5 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT06682663 nanot yet recruitingnot on this mapstarted 2024, after this paper: background citation

Evaluation of the Effect of Live Streaming Exercise on the Improvement of Hepatic Steatosis and Fibrosis in Pregnant Women with MASLD and Its Study Based on the Liver-gut Axis Mechanism.

TypeinterventionalSponsorPeking UniversityRan2024 to 2026Enrolled220ConditionsMetabolic Dysfunction-associated Steatotic Liver DiseaseArmsLive Streaming Exercise
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

109 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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49 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Hong-Tian LiInstitute of Reproductive and Child Health, National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing 100191, China.
Ming XueCentre for Health Statistics and Information, National Health Commission of China, Beijing, China.
Susan HellersteinDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Yue CaiCentre for Health Statistics and Information, National Health Commission of China, Beijing, China.
Yanqiu GaoOffice for National Maternal and Child Health Statistics of China, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, China.
Yali ZhangInstitute of Reproductive and Child Health, National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing 100191, China.
Jie QiaoDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Centre for Reproductive Medicine, Peking University Third Hospital, Beijing 100191, China liujm@pku.edu.cn jie.qiao@263.net.ORCID 0000-0003-2126-1376
Jan BlusteinRobert F Wagner Graduate School of Public Service, New York University, New York, NY, USA.
Jian-Meng LiuInstitute of Reproductive and Child Health, National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing 100191, China liujm@pku.edu.cn jie.qiao@263.net.ORCID 0000-0002-3220-6084

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo measure the association of China's universal two child policy, announced in October 2015, with changes in births and health related birth characteristics.

designNational, descriptive before-and-after comparative study.

settingEvery county in 28 of 31 provinces of mainland China.

participantsBirths included in two national databases: 67 786 749 births from county level monthly aggregated data between January 2014 and December 2017; and 31 786 279 deliveries from individual level delivery information records between January 2015 and December 2017.

main outcome measuresMonthly mean number of births and mean proportion of multiparous mothers and mothers aged 35 and over, preterm deliveries, and caesarean deliveries.

resultsThe study had two phases: the baseline period (up to and including June 2016, nine months after the policy announcement) and the effective period (from July 2016 to December 2017). The estimated number of additional births attributable to the new policy between July 2016 and December 2017 was 5.40 million (95% confidence interval 4.34 to 6.46). The monthly mean percentage of multiparous mothers and mothers aged 35 and over increased by 9.1 percentage points (95% confidence interval 6.4 to 11.7) and 5.8 percentage points (5.2 to 6.4), respectively. This increase in older mothers, however, was not associated with a concurrent increase in the overall rate of preterm birth. The monthly mean caesarean delivery rate among multiparous mothers increased by 1.2 percentage points (0.8 to 1.6) from 39.7% to 40.9%, and decreased by 3.0 percentage points (-3.5 to -2.5) among nulliparous mothers from 39.6% to 36.6%.

conclusionsSince its announcement in October 2015, the universal two child policy has been associated with a rise in births in China and with changes in health related birth characteristics: women giving birth have been more likely to be multiparous, and more likely to be aged 35 and over. No evidence of concurrent worsening outcomes (that is, premature births) was seen.

Indexed as

AdultBirth RateChinaFamily CharacteristicsFamily Planning PolicyFemaleHumansInfant, NewbornMaleMaternal AgeParityPregnancyPremature Birth

Identifiers

PMID31434652
PMCPMC6699592

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.