ArticleSubstance abuse treatment, prevention, and policy2019
Youth smoking and anti-smoking policies in North Dakota: a system dynamics simulation study.
Article in Substance abuse treatment, prevention, and policy, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- System dynamics modelling methods for public health policy evaluation: a systematic literature review focussing on mental health and substance use disorders.BMC public health · 2026Pooled it
- [Progress on the application of system dynamics model in the field of health management].Zhejiang da xue xue bao. Yi xue ban = Journal of Zhejiang University. Medical sciences · 2025Review
- Increased Tobacco Taxation Associated With Decreased Consumption and Bladder Cancer Incidence.Urology practice · 2025Article
- Trends in electronic cigarette use and conventional smoking: quantifying a possible 'diversion' effect among US adolescents.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2021Article
- The Association between Sociocultural Factors and Substance Use among Haramaya University Students.Substance abuse : research and treatment · 2021Article
- Youth smoking and anti-smoking policies in North Dakota: a system dynamics simulation study.Substance abuse treatment, prevention, and policy · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe current study utilizes system dynamics to model the determinants of youth smoking and simulate effects of anti-smoking policies in the context of North Dakota, a state with one of the lowest cigarette tax rates in the USA.
methodsAn explanatory model was built to replicate historical trends in the youth smoking rate. Three different policies were simulated: 1) an increase in cigarette excise taxes; 2) increased funding for CDC-recommended comprehensive tobacco control programs; and 3) enforcement of increased retailer compliance with age restrictions on cigarette sales.
resultsThe explanatory model successfully replicated historical trends in adolescent smoking behavior in North Dakota from 1992 to 2014. The policy model showed that increasing taxes to $2.20 per pack starting in 2015 was the most effective of the three policies, producing a 32.6% reduction in youth smoking rate by 2032. Other policies reduced smoking by a much lesser degree (7.0 and 3.2% for comprehensive tobacco control program funding and retailer compliance, respectively). The effects of each policy were additive.
conclusionsSystem dynamics modeling suggests that increasing cigarette excise taxes are particularly effective at reducing adolescent smoking rates. More generally, system dynamics offers an important complement to conventional analysis of observational data.
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