ArticleCanadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique2019
The future burden of obesity in Canada: a modelling study.
Article in Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Therapeutic inertia in obesity management among people living with obesity from the perspective of general/family practitioners in Canada: A mixed-methods study.Clinical obesity · 2025Article
- International population-based health surveys linked to outcome data: A new resource for public health and epidemiology.Health reports · 2020Article
- Association of Maternal Weight and Gestational Weight Gain with Maternal and Neonate Outcomes: A Prospective Cohort Study.Journal of clinical medicine · 2019Article
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3 authors.
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Abstract
objectivesWe applied the validated Obesity Population Risk Tool (OPoRT) to estimate the future burden of obesity in Canada using baseline risk factors attained through routinely collected survey data.
methodsOPoRT was developed using logistic regression with sex-specific generalized estimating equations to predict the 10-year prevalence of obesity (outcome BMI ≥ 30.0) among adults 18 and older. The algorithm includes 17 predictive factors, including socio-demographic and health behavioural characteristics. OPoRT demonstrated excellent discrimination (C-statistic ≥ 0.89) and achieved calibration. We applied OPoRT to Canadian Community Health Survey (2013/14) data to predict the future prevalence of obesity in Canada for a variety of population subgroups.
resultsThe predicted burden of obesity grew from 261 cases per 1000 in 2013/14 to 326 cases per 1000 in 2023/24 corresponding to a total of 8.54 million individuals with obesity. The burden is expected to be higher among males (347 cases per 1000) than females (305 cases per 1000). Individuals aged 35-49 had the highest predicted burden of obesity (374 cases per 1000) and the largest number of predicted cases (2.42 million), while individuals in the ≥ 65 age group had the lowest predicted burden (236 cases per 1000). The number of individuals with obesity per 1000 is highest among those severely food insecure (452 cases per 1000), compared with food secure individuals (324 cases per 1000).
conclusionsOPoRT can be used to estimate the future population burden of obesity, to identify priority subgroups at an elevated risk. Burden estimates should be reflected in approaches to curb the future burden of obesity.
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