Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31401952›Full record

ArticlePhilosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences2019

Epidemic growth rates and host movement patterns shape management performance for pathogen spillover at the wildlife-livestock interface.

Kezia R Manlove, Laura M Sampson, Benny Borremans, E Frances Cassirer, Ryan S Miller, Kim M Pepin, Thomas E Besser, Paul C Cross

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed
2.8field-weighted citation impact, top 10% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed, 14 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2019
    Article
  6. Ecological interventions to prevent and manage zoonotic pathogen spillover.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2019
    Review
  7. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 7 institutions in 2 countries.

Kezia R ManloveDepartment of Wildland Resources and Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84321, USA.
Laura M SampsonCenter for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA.
Benny BorremansDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095-7239, USA.
E Frances CassirerIdaho Department of Fish and Game, 3316 16th Street, Lewiston, ID 83501, USA.
Ryan S MillerUnited States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA.
Kim M PepinNational Wildlife Research Center, USDA-APHIS, Wildlife Services, 4101 Laporte Ave., Fort Collins, CO 80521, USA.
Thomas E BesserDepartment of Veterinary Microbiology and Pathology, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164-7040, USA.
Paul C CrossU.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Bozeman, MT 59715, USA.
Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service · USIdaho Department of Fish and Game · USPennsylvania State University · USUnited States Geological Survey · USUniversity of California, Los Angeles · USUtah State University · USWashington State University · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Managing pathogen spillover at the wildlife-livestock interface is a key step towards improving global animal health, food security and wildlife conservation. However, predicting the effectiveness of management actions across host-pathogen systems with different life histories is an on-going challenge since data on intervention effectiveness are expensive to collect and results are system-specific. We developed a simulation model to explore how the efficacies of different management strategies vary according to host movement patterns and epidemic growth rates. The model suggested that fast-growing, fast-moving epidemics like avian influenza were best-managed with actions like biosecurity or containment, which limited and localized overall spillover risk. For fast-growing, slower-moving diseases like foot-and-mouth disease, depopulation or prophylactic vaccination were competitive management options. Many actions performed competitively when epidemics grew slowly and host movements were limited, and how management efficacy related to epidemic growth rate or host movement propensity depended on what objective was used to evaluate management performance. This framework offers one means of classifying and prioritizing responses to novel pathogen spillover threats, and evaluating current management actions for pathogens emerging at the wildlife-livestock interface. This article is part of the theme issue 'Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover'.

Indexed as

Animals, WildLivestockAnimalsCommunicable Diseases, EmergingZoonosesdisease managementdisease modeldispersal kernelpathogen spilloverstructured decision-makingwildlife–livestock interface

Identifiers

PMID31401952
PMCPMC6711312
OpenAlexW2968327073

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.