ArticleBMJ open2019
Trajectories of body mass index in adulthood and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study.
Article in BMJ open, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 54 citations in OpenAlex.
- Life Course Trajectories of Body Mass Index and Risk of Cancer in Adulthood: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Obesity reviews : an official journal of the International Association for the Study of Obesity · 2026Pooled it
- Association of bariatric surgery with all-cause mortality and incidence of obesity-related disease at a population level: A systematic review and meta-analysis.PLoS medicine · 2020Pooled it
- Obesity at age 20 and weight gain during adulthood increase risk of total and premature all-cause mortality: findings from women attending breast screening in Manchester.BMC women's health · 2023Trial
- Underweight in Young Adult Women as a Dynamic Nutritional State: Evidence from Four Complementary Longitudinal Methods.Nutrients · 2026Article
- Body mass index trajectories in older adulthood and all-cause mortality: a cohort study in China.BMC public health · 2025Article
- The importance of missing data in estimating BMI trajectories.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Gender differences in midlife to later-life cumulative burden and variability of obesity measures and risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality.International journal of obesity (2005) · 2024Article
- Work- and mental health-related events and body mass index trajectories during the Covid-19 lockdown. Evidence from the lifelines cohort study in the Netherlands.International journal of obesity (2005) · 2024Article
- Body mass index trajectories and mortality risk in Japan using a population-based prospective cohort study: the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study.International journal of epidemiology · 2024Article
- Resilience, Accelerated Aging and Persistently Poor Health: Diverse Trajectories of Health in Malawi.Population and development review · 2023Article
- BMI trajectory in adulthood in relation to all-cause and cause-specific mortality: A retrospective cohort study in Taiwan.PloS one · 2023Article
- Article
- BMI trajectories, morbidity, and mortality in England: a two-step approach to estimating consequences of changes in BMI.Obesity (Silver Spring, Md.) · 2022Article
- The impact of sex on blood pressure and anthropometry trajectories from early adulthood in a Nigerian population: insights into women's cardiovascular disease risk across the lifespan.BMC women's health · 2022Article
- Relations Between BMI Trajectories and Habitual Physical Activity Measured by a Smartwatch in the Electronic Cohort of the Framingham Heart Study: Cohort Study.JMIR cardio · 2022Article
- Article
- Adding Estimated Cardiorespiratory Fitness to the Framingham Risk Score and Mortality Risk in a Korean Population-Based Cohort Study.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Association Between Temporal Changes in Diet Quality and Concurrent Changes in Dietary Intake, Body Mass Index, and Physical Activity Among Japanese Adults: A Longitudinal Study.Frontiers in nutrition · 2022Article
- Specific body mass index trajectories were related to musculoskeletal pain and mortality: 19-year follow-up cohort.Journal of clinical epidemiology · 2022Article
- Weight gain in Chinese youth during a 4-month COVID-19 lockdown: a retrospective observational study.BMJ open · 2021Observational
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveLimited research has assessed the association between patterns of body mass index (BMI) change across adulthood and mortality. We aimed to identify groups of individuals who followed specific group-based BMI trajectories across adulthood, using weight collected on three occasions and recalled data from early adulthood, and to examine associations with all-cause and cause-specific mortality.
designProspective cohort study.
settingMelbourne, Australia.
participantsAdults (n=29 881) enrolled in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study, who were aged from 40 to 70 years between 1990 and 1994, and had BMI data for at least three time points. OUTCOME: Deaths from any cause before 31 March 2017 and deaths from obesity-related cancers, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and other causes before 31 December 2013.
resultsWe identified six group-based BMI trajectories: lower-normal stable (TR1), higher-normal stable (TR2), normal to overweight (TR3), chronic borderline obesity (TR4), normal to class I obesity (TR5) and overweight to class II obesity (TR6). Generally, compared with maintaining lower-normal BMI throughout adulthood, the lowest mortality was experienced by participants who maintained higher-normal BMI (HR 0.90; 95% CI 0.84 to 0.97); obesity during midlife was associated with higher all-cause mortality even when BMI was normal in early adulthood (HR 1.09; 95% CI 0.98 to 1.21) and prolonged borderline obesity from early adulthood was also associated with elevated mortality (HR 1.16; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.33). These associations were stronger for never-smokers and for death due to obesity-related cancers. Being overweight in early adulthood and becoming class II obese was associated with higher CVD mortality relative to maintaining lower-normal BMI (HR 2.27; 95% CI 1.34 to 3.87).
conclusionOur findings highlight the importance of weight management throughout adulthood to reduce mortality.
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