ArticleBMJ open2019
Training machine learning models to predict 30-day mortality in patients discharged from the emergency department: a retrospective, population-based registry study.
Article in BMJ open, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Review
- Artificial intelligence-based approaches for advance care planning: a scoping review.BMC palliative care · 2025Article
- Automating detection of diagnostic error of infectious diseases using machine learning.PLOS digital health · 2024Article
- Development and validation of prognostic machine learning models for short- and long-term mortality among acutely admitted patients based on blood tests.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Long-term exposure to particulate matter was associated with increased dementia risk using both traditional approaches and novel machine learning methods.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Combining machine learning and conventional statistical approaches for risk factor discovery in a large cohort study.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Ethical considerations in implementing AI for mortality prediction in the emergency department: Linking theory and practice.Digital healthArticle
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesThe aim of this work was to train machine learning models to identify patients at end of life with clinically meaningful diagnostic accuracy, using 30-day mortality in patients discharged from the emergency department (ED) as a proxy.
designRetrospective, population-based registry study.
settingSwedish health services. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: All cause 30-day mortality.
methodsElectronic health records (EHRs) and administrative data were used to train six supervised machine learning models to predict all-cause mortality within 30 days in patients discharged from EDs in southern Sweden, Europe.
participantsThe models were trained using 65 776 ED visits and validated on 55 164 visits from a separate ED to which the models were not exposed during training.
resultsThe outcome occurred in 136 visits (0.21%) in the development set and in 83 visits (0.15%) in the validation set. The model with highest discrimination attained ROC-AUC 0.95 (95% CI 0.93 to 0.96), with sensitivity 0.87 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.93) and specificity 0.86 (0.86 to 0.86) on the validation set.
conclusionsMultiple models displayed excellent discrimination on the validation set and outperformed available indexes for short-term mortality prediction interms of ROC-AUC (by indirect comparison). The practical utility of the models increases as the data they were trained on did not require costly de novo collection but were real-world data generated as a by-product of routine care delivery.
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