Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31398228›Full record

ArticlePloS one2019

Statistical modeling of surveillance data to identify correlates of urban malaria risk: A population-based study in the Amazon Basin.

Rodrigo M Corder, Gilberto A Paula, Anaclara Pincelli, Marcelo U Ferreira

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed
5.8field-weighted citation impact, top 4% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 35 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Review
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Rodrigo M CorderDepartment of Parasitology, Institute of Biomedical Sciences, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-8929-2200
Gilberto A PaulaDepartment of Statistics, Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
Anaclara PincelliDepartment of Parasitology, Institute of Biomedical Sciences, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-2071-1139
Marcelo U FerreiraDepartment of Parasitology, Institute of Biomedical Sciences, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-5293-9090
Universidade de São Paulo · BR

Funding

Sugar-feeding behavior of the malaria vector Nyssorhynchus darlingi and development of effective attractive toxic sugar baits (ATSB) to increase intervention success in PeruU19AI089681 · NIAID · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI VINETZ, JOSEPH M. · 2010 to 2023
$20.1M
NIAID NIH HHS U19 AI089681
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Despite the recent malaria burden reduction in the Americas, focal transmission persists across the Amazon Basin. Timely analysis of surveillance data is crucial to characterize high-risk individuals and households for better targeting of regional elimination efforts. Here we analyzed 5,480 records of laboratory-confirmed clinical malaria episodes combined with demographic and socioeconomic information to identify risk factors for elevated malaria incidence in Mâncio Lima, the main urban transmission hotspot of Brazil. Overdispersed malaria count data clustered into households were fitted with random-effects zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. Random-effect predictors were used to characterize the spatial heterogeneity in malaria risk at the household level. Adult males were identified as the population stratum at greatest risk, likely due to increased occupational exposure away of the town. However, poor housing and residence in the less urbanized periphery of the town were also found to be key predictors of malaria risk, consistent with a substantial local transmission. Two thirds of the 8,878 urban residents remained uninfected after 23,975 person-years of follow-up. Importantly, we estimated that nearly 14% of them, mostly children and older adults living in the central urban hub, were free of malaria risk, being either unexposed, naturally unsusceptible, or immune to infection. We conclude that statistical modeling of routinely collected, but often neglected, malaria surveillance data can be explored to characterize drivers of transmission heterogeneity at the community level and provide evidence for the rational deployment of control interventions.

Indexed as

Models, StatisticalAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overBrazilChildChild, PreschoolCitiesFemaleGeographyHumansIncidenceInfantInfant, NewbornMalaria

Identifiers

PMID31398228
PMCPMC6688813
OpenAlexW2968242297

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.