ArticleInternational journal of obesity (2005)2019
Microsimulation model of child and adolescent overweight: making use of what we already know.
Article in International journal of obesity (2005), 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- A Scoping Review of the Literature on Child and/or Adolescent Health Microsimulation Models.Applied health economics and health policy · 2026Review
- Is the cost-effectiveness of an early-childhood sleep intervention to prevent obesity affected by socioeconomic position?Obesity (Silver Spring, Md.) · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundNew Zealand has high rates of child overweight and obesity when compared with other countries. Despite an abundance of research documenting the problem, it is unclear what the most effective policy changes or interventions are, and how policy changes might unfold over time within complex systems.
methodsWe use estimates derived from meta-analyses to create a dynamic microsimulation model of child overweight (including obesity). Using census records we created a synthetic birth cohort of 10,000 children. Information on parental education, ethnicity and father's socio-economic position at birth were taken from census records. We used the New Zealand Health Survey to estimate population base rates for the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Information on other modifiers (such as maternal smoking, breastfeeding, preterm birth, regular breakfast consumption and so forth) were taken from three birth cohorts: Christchurch Health and Development Study, The Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study and the Pacific Islands Families Study. Published intervention studies were used to derive plausible estimates for changes to modifiers.
resultsReducing the proportion of mothers classified as overweight and obesity (-3.31(95% CI -3.55; -3.07) percentage points), reducing the proportion of children watching two or more hours of TV (-3.78(95% CI -4.01; -3.54)), increasing the proportion of children eating breakfast regularly (-1.71(95% CI -1.96; -1.46)), and reducing the proportion of children born with high birth weights (-1.36(95% CI -1.61; -1.11)), lead to sizable decreases in the estimated prevalence of child overweight (including obesity). Reducing the proportion of mothers giving birth by caesarean (-0.23(95% CI -0.49; -0.23)) and increasing parental education (-0.07(95% CI -0.31; 0.18)) did not impact upon child overweight rates.
conclusionsWe created a working simulation model of New Zealand children that can be accessed by policy makers and researchers to determine known relationships between predictors and child overweight, as well as potential gains from targeting specific pathways.
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