Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31387649›Full record

ArticleParasites & vectors2019

Modeling Culicoides abundance in mainland France: implications for surveillance.

Pierre Villard, Facundo Muñoz, Thomas Balenghien, Thierry Baldet, Renaud Lancelot, Viviane Hénaux

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Parasites & vectors, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Review
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Frontiers in veterinary science · 2024
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  8. Outlook on RNAi-Based Strategies for ControllingPathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023
    Review
  9. Wing morphology variations inFrontiers in veterinary science · 2023
    Article
  10. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Pierre VillardCIRAD, UMR ASTRE, 34398, Montpellier, France.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3152-948X
Facundo MuñozCIRAD, UMR ASTRE, 34398, Montpellier, France.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5061-4241
Thomas BalenghienASTRE, CIRAD, INRA, Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France.
Thierry BaldetCIRAD, UMR ASTRE, 34398, Montpellier, France.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2979-9517
Renaud LancelotCIRAD, UMR ASTRE, 34398, Montpellier, France.
Viviane HénauxUnité Epidémiologie et Appui à la Surveillance, Laboratoire de Lyon, Université de Lyon - ANSES, 31 Avenue Tony Garnier, 69007, Lyon, France. viviane.henaux@anses.fr.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8630-3066

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundBiting midges of the genus Culicoides Latreille (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are involved in the transmission of several viruses affecting humans and livestock, particularly bluetongue (BTV). Over the last decade, Culicoides surveillance has been conducted discontinuously and at various temporal and spatial scales in mainland France following the BTV epizootics in 2008-2009 and its reemergence and continuous circulation since 2015. The ability to predict seasonal dynamics and spatial abundance of Culicoides spp. is a key element in identifying periods and areas at high risk of transmission in order to strengthen surveillance for early detection and to establish seasonally disease-free zones. The objective of this study was to model the abundance of Culicoides spp. using surveillance data.

methodsA mixed-effect Poisson model, adjusted for overdispersion and taking into account temperature data at each trap location, was used to model the weekly relative abundance of Culicoides spp. over a year in 24 vector zones, based on surveillance data collected during 2009-2012. Vector zones are the spatial units used for Culicoides surveillance since 2016 in mainland France.

resultsThe curves of the predicted annual abundance of Culicoides spp. in vector zones showed three different shapes: unimodal, bimodal or plateau, reflecting the temporal variability of the observed counts between zones. For each vector zone, the model enabled to identify periods of vector activity ranging from 25 to 51 weeks.

conclusionsAlthough the data were collected for surveillance purposes, our modeling approach integrating vector data with daily temperatures, which are known to be major drivers of Culicoides spp. activity, provided areas-specific predictions of Culicoides spp. abundance. Our findings provide decisions makers with essential information to identify risk periods in each vector zone and guide the allocation of resources for surveillance and control. Knowledge of Culicoides spp. dynamics is also of primary importance for modeling the risk of establishment and spread of midge-borne diseases in mainland France.

Indexed as

CeratopogonidaeInsect VectorsModels, StatisticalAnimalsFemaleFranceMalePopulation DynamicsPopulation SurveillanceSeasonsAbundance modelingBluetongueCount modelCulicoidesFranceVector-free period

Identifiers

PMID31387649
PMCPMC6683357

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.