ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2019
Incorporating household structure and demography into models of endemic disease.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed.
- Relationship between household attributes and contact patterns in urban and rural South Africa.PloS one · 2026Article
- Why population heterogeneity matters for modelling infectious diseases.Interface focus · 2025Article
- The contribution of community transmission to the burden of hospital-associated pathogens: A systematic scoping review of epidemiological models.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2025Review
- Epidemiological Dynamics in Populations Structured by Neighbourhoods and Households.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2025Article
- Article
- Quantifying age-specific household contacts in Aotearoa New Zealand for infectious disease modelling.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Article
- Population age and household structures shape transmission dynamics of emerging infectious diseases: a longitudinal microsimulation approach.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
- Modelling the epidemiological implications for SARS-CoV-2 of Christmas household bubbles in England.Journal of theoretical biology · 2023Article
- Fitting to the UK COVID-19 outbreak, short-term forecasts and estimating the reproductive number.Statistical methods in medical research · 2022Article
- Atmospheric particulate matter effects on SARS-CoV-2 infection and spreading dynamics: A spatio-temporal point process model.Environmental research · 2022Article
- A computational framework for modelling infectious disease policy based on age and household structure with applications to the COVID-19 pandemic.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Article
- Controlling epidemic diseases based only on social distancing level: General case.ISA transactions · 2022Article
- Incorporating equity in infectious disease modeling: Case study of a distributional impact framework for measles transmission.Vaccine · 2021Article
- The potential impact of preventive therapy against tuberculosis in the WHO South-East Asian Region: a modelling approach.BMC medicine · 2020Article
- The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: a modelling study.The Lancet. Public health · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
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Abstract
The spread of infectious diseases is intimately linked with the strength and type of contact between individuals. Multiple observational and modelling studies have highlighted the importance of two forms of social mixing: age structure, where the likelihood of interaction between two individuals is determined by their ages; and household structure, which recognizes the much stronger contacts and hence transmission potential within the family setting. Age structure has been ubiquitous in predictive models of both endemic and epidemic infections, in part due to the ease of assessing someone's age. By contrast, although household structure is potentially the dominant heterogeneity, it has received less attention, in part due to an absence of the necessary methodology. Here, we develop the modelling framework necessary to predict the behaviour of endemic infections (which necessitates capturing demographic processes) in populations that possess both household and age structure. We compare two childhood infections, with measles-like and mumps-like parameters, and two populations with UK-like and Kenya-like characteristics, which allows us to disentangle the impact of epidemiology and demography. For this high-dimensional model, we predict complex nonlinear dynamics, where the dynamics of within-household outbreaks are tempered by historical waves of infection and the immunity of older individuals.
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