Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31385172›Full record

ArticleJournal of gastrointestinal surgery : official journal of the Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract2020

Use of Machine Learning for Prediction of Patient Risk of Postoperative Complications After Liver, Pancreatic, and Colorectal Surgery.

Katiuscha Merath, J Madison Hyer, Rittal Mehta, Ayesha Farooq, Fabio Bagante, Kota Sahara, Diamantis I Tsilimigras, Eliza Beal, Anghela Z Paredes, Lu Wu and 2 more

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Article in Journal of gastrointestinal surgery : official journal of the Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 63 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
63citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
9.2field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

63 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 129 citations in OpenAlex.

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3 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Katiuscha MerathDepartment of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, 395 W. 12th Ave., Suite 670, Columbus, OH, USA.
J Madison HyerDepartment of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, 395 W. 12th Ave., Suite 670, Columbus, OH, USA.
Rittal MehtaDepartment of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, 395 W. 12th Ave., Suite 670, Columbus, OH, USA.
Ayesha FarooqDepartment of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, 395 W. 12th Ave., Suite 670, Columbus, OH, USA.
Fabio BaganteDepartment of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, 395 W. 12th Ave., Suite 670, Columbus, OH, USA.
Kota SaharaDepartment of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, 395 W. 12th Ave., Suite 670, Columbus, OH, USA.
Diamantis I TsilimigrasDepartment of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, 395 W. 12th Ave., Suite 670, Columbus, OH, USA.
Eliza BealDepartment of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, 395 W. 12th Ave., Suite 670, Columbus, OH, USA.
Anghela Z ParedesDepartment of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, 395 W. 12th Ave., Suite 670, Columbus, OH, USA.
Lu WuDepartment of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, 395 W. 12th Ave., Suite 670, Columbus, OH, USA.
Aslam EjazDepartment of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, 395 W. 12th Ave., Suite 670, Columbus, OH, USA.
Timothy M PawlikDepartment of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, 395 W. 12th Ave., Suite 670, Columbus, OH, USA. tim.pawlik@osumc.edu.ORCID 0000-0002-4828-8096
The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundSurgical resection is the only potentially curative treatment for patients with colorectal, liver, and pancreatic cancers. Although these procedures are performed with low mortality, rates of complications remain relatively high following hepatopancreatic and colorectal surgery.

methodsThe American College of Surgeons (ACS) National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was utilized to identify patients undergoing liver, pancreatic and colorectal surgery from 2014 to 2016. Decision tree models were utilized to predict the occurrence of any complication, as well as specific complications. To assess the variability of the performance of the classification trees, bootstrapping was performed on 50% of the sample.

resultsAlgorithms were derived from a total of 15,657 patients who met inclusion criteria. The algorithm had a good predictive ability for the occurrence of any complication, with a C-statistic of 0.74, outperforming the ASA (C-statistic 0.58) and ACS-Surgical Risk Calculator (C-statistic 0.71). The algorithm was able to predict with high accuracy thirteen out of the seventeen complications analyzed. The best performance was in the prediction of stroke (C-statistic 0.98), followed by wound dehiscence, cardiac arrest, and progressive renal failure (all C-statistic 0.96). The algorithm had a good predictive ability for superficial SSI (C-statistic 0.76), organ space SSI (C-statistic 0.76), sepsis (C-statistic 0.79), and bleeding requiring transfusion (C-statistic 0.79).

conclusionMachine learning was used to develop an algorithm that accurately predicted patient risk of developing complications following liver, pancreatic, or colorectal surgery. The algorithm had very good predictive ability to predict specific complications and demonstrated superiority over other established methods.

Indexed as

Colorectal SurgeryHumansLiverMachine LearningPostoperative ComplicationsRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsColorectalComplicationsLiverMachine learningPancreas

Identifiers

PMID31385172
OpenAlexW2966316153

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.