Responses of bud-break phenology to daily-asymmetric warming: daytime warming intensifies the advancement of bud break.

There is evidence that the ongoing climate change is happening through nighttime rather than daytime warming. How such a daily-asymmetric warming modifies plant phenology is still unclear. We investigated the effects of asymmetric warming on bud break by daily monitoring seedlings belonging to 26 black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP.] and 15 balsam fir [Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.] provenances from the native range in Canada. Seedlings were subjected to either daytime or nighttime warming in three growth chambers at temperatures ranging between 10 and 24 °C. On average, a warming of 4 °C advanced the timings of bud break in both species by 2.4 days, with the later phases being more sensitive to the treatment. Bud break of both species responded more strongly to daytime warming, with the bud break occurred 1.2 and 3.2 days earlier under daytime than nighttime warming in black spruce and balsam fir, respectively. A marked ecotypic differentiation was only observed in black spruce that originated from provenances distributed broadly across Canada, with seedlings from the warmest provenance completing bud break 8.3 days later than those from the coldest one. However, no significant effect of provenance was observed for balsam fir, the narrowly distributed species. Overall, the above results suggest that a higher temporal resolution such as temperatures during daytime and nighttime, and higher spatial resolution should be taken into account to improve the accuracy of phenological model predictions under global change scenarios. Phenological models based on daily average temperature should take into account the diverging impacts of asymmetric warming on plant phenology. Our findings may indicate that the influence of warming on plant phenology may be less dramatic than expected.