Noncontrast computer tomography-based radiomics model for predicting intracerebral hemorrhage expansion: preliminary findings and comparison with conventional radiological model.

objectivesTo develop a radiomics model for predicting hematoma expansion in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and to compare its predictive performance with a conventional radiological feature-based model.

methodsWe retrospectively analyzed 251 consecutive patients with acute ICH. Two radiologists independently assessed baseline noncontrast computed tomography (NCCT) images. For each radiologist, a radiological model was constructed from radiological variables; a radiomics score model was constructed from high-dimensional quantitative features extracted from NCCT images; and a combined model was constructed using both radiological variables and radiomics score. Development of models was constructed in a primary cohort (n = 177). We then validated the results in an independent validation cohort (n = 74). The primary outcome was hematoma expansion. We compared the three models for predicting hematoma expansion. Predictive performance was assessed with the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

resultsIn the primary cohort, combined model and radiomics model showed greater AUCs than radiological model for both readers (all p < .05). In the validation cohort, combined model and radiomics model showed greater AUCs, sensitivities, and accuracies than radiological model for reader 2 (all p < .05). Combined model showed greater AUC than radiomics model for reader 1 only in the primary cohort (p = .03). Performance of three models was comparable between reader 1 and reader 2 in both cohorts (all p > .05).

conclusionsNCCT-based radiomics model showed high predictive performance and outperformed radiological model in the prediction of early hematoma expansion in ICH patients. KEY POINTS: • Radiomics model showed better performance for prediction of hematoma expansion in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage than radiological feature-based model. • Hematomas which expanded in follow-up NCCT tended to be larger in baseline volume, more irregular in shape, more heterogeneous in composition, and coarser in texture. • A radiomics model provides a convenient and objective tool for prediction of hematoma expansion that helps to define subsets of patients who would benefit from anti-expansion therapy.