Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31384730›Full record

ArticleVaccine: X2019

Vaccination history as a confounder of studies of influenza vaccine effectiveness.

Ivo M Foppa, Jill M Ferdinands, Jessie Chung, Brendan Flannery, Alicia M Fry

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Vaccine: X, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
18citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Influenza vaccine effectiveness against outpatient acute respiratory illness with laboratory-confirmed influenza, United States, 2024-25 season.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2026
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Improved Methods for Vaccine Effectiveness Studies.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2025
    Article
  6. Effectiveness of influenza vaccination in preventing confirmed influenza cases and hospitalizations in Northern Spain, 2023/24 season: A population-based test-negative case-control study.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2025
    Article
  7. Review
  8. Article
  9. Review
  10. Article
  11. Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness for Prevention of Severe Influenza-Associated Illness Among Adults in the United States, 2019-2020: A Test-Negative Study.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021
    Article
  12. Article
  13. Effects of Prior Season Vaccination on Current Season Vaccine Effectiveness in the United States Flu Vaccine Effectiveness Network, 2012-2013 Through 2017-2018.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021
    Article
  14. Simple models to include influenza vaccination history when evaluating the effect of influenza vaccination.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2021
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Ivo M FoppaBattelle Memorial Institute, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Jill M FerdinandsInfluenza Division, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Jessie ChungInfluenza Division, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Brendan FlanneryInfluenza Division, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Alicia M FryInfluenza Division, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundVaccination history may confound estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) when two conditions are present: (1) Influenza vaccination is associated with vaccination history and (2) vaccination modifies the risk of natural infection in the following seasons, either due to persisting vaccination immunity or due to lower previous risk of natural infection.

methodsAnalytic arguments are used to define conditions for confounding of VE estimates by vaccination history. Simulation studies, both with accurate and inaccurate assessment of current and previous vaccination status, are used to explore the potential magnitude of these biases when using different statistical models to address confounding by vaccination history.

resultsWe found a potential for substantial bias of VE estimates by vaccination history if infection- and/or vaccination-derived immunity persisted from one season to the next and if vaccination uptake in individuals was seasonally correlated. Full adjustment by vaccination history, which is usually not feasible, resulted in unbiased VE estimates. Partial adjustment, i.e. only by prior season's vaccination status, significantly reduced confounding bias. Misclassification of vaccination status, which can also lead to substantial bias, interferes with the adjustment of VE estimates for vaccination history.

conclusionsConfounding by vaccination history may bias VE estimates, but even partial adjustment by only the prior season's vaccination status substantially reduces confounding bias. Misclassification of vaccination status may compromise VE estimates and efforts to adjust for vaccination history.

Indexed as

ConfoundingInfluenzaTest-negative studyVaccination historyVaccineVaccine effectiveness

Identifiers

PMID31384730
PMCPMC6668227

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.