ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2019
Challenges to natural and human communities from surprising ocean temperatures.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- 'The fish that stop': drivers of historical decline for Pacific cod and implications for modern management in an era of rapidly changing climate.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2025Article
- When species don't move together: Non-concurrent range shifts in Eastern Pacific kelp forest communities.PloS one · 2024Article
- Climate adaptation pathways and the role of social-ecological networks in small-scale fisheries.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Poleward bound: adapting to climate-driven species redistribution.Reviews in fish biology and fisheries · 2022Review
- Using a climate attribution statistic to inform judgments about changing fisheries sustainability.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Time to look forward to adapt to ocean warming.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The community of species, human institutions, and human activities at a given location have been shaped by historical conditions (both mean and variability) at that location. Anthropogenic climate change is now adding strong trends on top of existing natural variability. These trends elevate the frequency of "surprises"-conditions that are unexpected based on recent history. Here, we show that the frequency of surprising ocean temperatures has increased even faster than expected based on recent temperature trends. Using a simple model of human adaptation, we show that these surprises will increasingly challenge natural modes of adaptation that rely on historical experience. We also show that warming rates are likely to shift natural communities toward generalist species, reducing their productivity and diversity. Our work demonstrates increasing benefits for individuals and institutions from betting that trends will continue, but this strategy represents a radical shift that will be difficult for many to make.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.