Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31383511›Full record

ArticleAnnals of epidemiology2019

Estimating prevalence of type I and type II diabetes using incidence rates: the SEARCH for diabetes in youth study.

Thaddäus Tönnies, Giuseppina Imperatore, Annika Hoyer, Sharon H Saydah, Ralph B D'Agostino, Jasmin Divers, Scott Isom, Dana Dabelea, Jean M Lawrence, Elizabeth J Mayer-Davis and 3 more

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Article in Annals of epidemiology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed
2.0field-weighted citation impact, top 13% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed, 18 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors at 8 institutions in 2 countries.

Thaddäus TönniesInstitute for Biometrics and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at the Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany. Electronic address: thaddaeus.toennies@ddz.de.
Giuseppina ImperatoreDivision of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Atlanta, GA.
Annika HoyerInstitute for Biometrics and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at the Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany.
Sharon H SaydahDivision of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Atlanta, GA.
Ralph B D'AgostinoDepartment of Biostatistical Sciences, Division of Public Health Sciences, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC.
Jasmin DiversDepartment of Biostatistical Sciences, Division of Public Health Sciences, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC.
Scott IsomDepartment of Biostatistical Sciences, Division of Public Health Sciences, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC.
Dana DabeleaDepartment of Epidemiology, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, Denver.
Jean M LawrenceDepartment of Research & Evaluation, Kaiser Permanente Southern California, Pasadena.
Elizabeth J Mayer-DavisDepartments of Nutrition and Medicine, Gillings School of Global Public Health and School of Medicine, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill.
Catherine PihokerDepartment of Pediatrics, University of Washington, Seattle.
Lawrence DolanDivision of Endocrinology, Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, OH.
Ralph BrinksInstitute for Biometrics and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at the Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany.
Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf · DEWake Forest University · USNational Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion · USCincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center · USColorado School of Public Health · USKaiser Permanente · USUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill · USUniversity of Washington · US

Funding

UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CLINICAL NUTRITION RESEARCH UNITP30DK056350 · NIDDK · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI Venkata Saroja Voruganti · 1999 to 2026
$31.6M
Limited Competition for the Continuation of the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Cohort Study (UC4)SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Cohort StudyUC4DK108173 · NIDDK · WAKE FOREST UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI DAGOSTINO, RALPH B. · 2015 to 2016
$14.8M
NCCDPHP CDC HHS U18 DP006138NCCDPHP CDC HHS U18 DP006139NIDDK NIH HHS P30 DK056350NIDDK NIH HHS UC4 DK108173
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeMost surveillance efforts in childhood diabetes have focused on incidence, whereas prevalence is rarely reported. This study aimed to assess whether a mathematical illness-death model accurately estimated future prevalence from baseline prevalence and incidence rates in children.

methodsSEARCH for Diabetes in Youth is an ongoing population-based surveillance study of prevalence and incidence of diabetes and its complications among youth in the United States. We used age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific SEARCH estimates of the prevalence of type I and type II diabetes in 2001 and incidence from 2002 to 2008. These data were used in a partial differential equation to estimate prevalence in 2009 with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals. Model-based prevalence was compared with the observed prevalence in 2009.

resultsMost confidence intervals for the difference between estimated and observed prevalence included zero, indicating no evidence for a difference between the two methods. The width of confidence intervals indicated high precision for the estimated prevalence when considering all races/ethnicities. In strata with few cases, precision was reduced.

conclusionsFuture prevalence of type I and type II diabetes in youth may be accurately estimated from baseline prevalence and incidence. Diabetes surveillance could benefit from potential cost savings of this method.

Indexed as

AdolescentAge DistributionChildChild, PreschoolDiabetes Mellitus, Type 1Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2FemaleHumansIncidenceInfantMaleModels, TheoreticalPrevalenceSex DistributionUnited StatesYoung AdultAdolescentsChildrenEpidemiologyEthnic groupsIllness-death modelSurveillanceType I diabetesType II diabetes

Identifiers

PMID31383511
PMCPMC6785183
OpenAlexW2961308661

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.