Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31378584›Full record

ArticleEpidemics2019

Estimating the impact of violent events on transmission in Ebola virus disease outbreak, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2018-2019.

S Rae Wannier, Lee Worden, Nicole A Hoff, Eduardo Amezcua, Bernice Selo, Cyrus Sinai, Mathias Mossoko, Bathe Njoloko, Emile Okitolonda-Wemakoy, Placide Mbala-Kingebeni and 9 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Epidemics, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
18citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
3.2field-weighted citation impact, top 8% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 38 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Review
  9. Article
  10. Review
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Ebola virus disease.Nature reviews. Disease primers · 2020
    Review
  16. The cost of insecurity: from flare-up to control of a major Ebola virus disease hotspot during the outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2019.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2020
    Article
  17. Spatial variability in the reproduction number of Ebola virus disease, Democratic Republic of the Congo, January-September 2019.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2019
    Article
  18. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

19 authors at 9 institutions in 2 countries.

S Rae WannierFrancis I. Proctor Foundation for Research in Ophthalmology, San Francisco, University of California, CA, USA; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Lee WordenFrancis I. Proctor Foundation for Research in Ophthalmology, San Francisco, University of California, CA, USA.
Nicole A HoffDepartment of Epidemiology, School of Public Health University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Eduardo AmezcuaDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Bernice SeloMinistry of Health, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo.
Cyrus SinaiDepartment of Geography at University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
Mathias MossokoMinistry of Health, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo.
Bathe NjolokoMinistry of Health, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo.
Emile Okitolonda-WemakoySchool of Public Health, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo.
Placide Mbala-KingebeniInsitut National de Recherche Biomedicale, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo.
Steve Ahuka-MundekeInsitut National de Recherche Biomedicale, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo.
Jean Jacques Muyembe-TamfumInsitut National de Recherche Biomedicale, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo.
Eugene T RichardsonGlobal Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, MA, USA.
George W RutherfordFrancis I. Proctor Foundation for Research in Ophthalmology, San Francisco, University of California, CA, USA.
James H JonesDepartment of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA; Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Thomas M LietmanFrancis I. Proctor Foundation for Research in Ophthalmology, San Francisco, University of California, CA, USA; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA; Department of Ophthalmology, School of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Anne W RimoinDepartment of Epidemiology, School of Public Health University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Travis C PorcoFrancis I. Proctor Foundation for Research in Ophthalmology, San Francisco, University of California, CA, USA; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA; Department of Ophthalmology, School of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
J Daniel KellyFrancis I. Proctor Foundation for Research in Ophthalmology, San Francisco, University of California, CA, USA; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA. Electronic address: dan.kelly@ucsf.edu.
San Francisco Foundation · USMinistry of Public Health · CDNational Institute of Biomedical Research · CDUniversity of California, San Francisco · USUniversity of California, Los Angeles · USHarvard University · USStanford University · USUniversity of Kinshasa · CDUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill · US

Funding

Social Epidemiology of Ebola Virus DiseaseK08AI139361 · NIAID · HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL · PI RICHARDSON, EUGENE THOMAS · 2019 to 2022
$751k
Understanding the epidemiology and natural history of unrecognized Ebola virus infectionK23AI146268 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI KELLY, JOHN DANIEL · 2019 to 2022
$748k
NIAID NIH HHS K08 AI139361NIAID NIH HHS K23 AI146268
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionAs of April 2019, the current Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is occurring in a longstanding conflict zone and has become the second largest EVD outbreak in history. It is suspected that after violent events occur, EVD transmission will increase; however, empirical studies to understand the impact of violence on transmission are lacking. Here, we use spatial and temporal trends of EVD case counts to compare transmission rates between health zones that have versus have not experienced recent violent events during the outbreak.

methodsWe collected daily EVD case counts from DRC Ministry of Health. A time-varying indicator of recent violence in each health zone was derived from events documented in the WHO situation reports. We used the Wallinga-Teunis technique to estimate the reproduction number R for each case by day per zone in the 2018-2019 outbreak. We fit an exponentially decaying curve to estimates of R overall and by health zone, for comparison to past outbreaks.

resultsAs of 16 April 2019, the mean overall R for the entire outbreak was 1.11. We found evidence of an increase in the estimated transmission rates in health zones with recently reported violent events versus those without (p = 0.008). The average R was estimated as between 0.61 and 0.86 in regions not affected by recent violent events, and between 1.01 and 1.07 in zones affected by violent events within the last 21 days, leading to an increase in R between 0.17 and 0.53. Within zones with recent violent events, the mean estimated quenching rate was lower than for all past outbreaks except the 2013-2016 West African outbreak.

conclusionThe difference in the estimated transmission rates between zones affected by recent violent events suggests that violent events are contributing to increased transmission and the ongoing nature of this outbreak.

Indexed as

Disease OutbreaksViolenceDemocratic Republic of the CongoHemorrhagic Fever, EbolaHumansTimeAfricaDemocratic Republic of CongoEbola virus diseaseGeospatialMathematical modelingOutbreak

Identifiers

PMID31378584
PMCPMC7363034
OpenAlexW2964964058

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.