Leveraging machine learning techniques for predicting pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor grades using biochemical and tumor markers.

backgroundThe incidence of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs) is now increasing rapidly. The tumor grade of PNETs significantly affects the treatment strategy and prognosis. However, there is still no effective way to non-invasively classify PNET grades. Machine learning (ML) algorithms have shown potential in improving the prediction accuracy using comprehensive data.

aimTo provide a ML approach to predict PNET tumor grade using clinical data.

methodsThe clinical data of histologically confirmed PNET cases between 2012 and 2018 were collected. A method of minimum

resultsIn total, 91 PNET cases were included in this study, in which 32 were G1, 48 were G2 and 11 were G3. The results showed that there were significant differences among the clinical parameters of patients with different grades. Patients with higher grades tended to have higher values of total bilirubin, alpha fetoprotein, carcinoembryonic antigen, carbohydrate antigen 19-9 and carbohydrate antigen 72-4. Among the models we used, LDA performed best in predicting the PNET tumor grade. Meanwhile, MLP had the highest recall rate for G3 cases. All of the models stabilized when the sample size was over 70 percent of the total, except for SVM. Different parameters varied in affecting the outcomes of the models. Overall, alanine transaminase, total bilirubin, carcinoembryonic antigen, carbohydrate antigen 19-9 and carbohydrate antigen 72-4 affected the outcome greater than other parameters.

conclusionML could be a simple and effective method in non-invasively predicting PNET grades by using the routine data obtained from the results of biochemical and tumor markers.