Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31354897›Full record

ArticleCommunication methods and measures2019

Validating the Hornik & Woolf approach to choosing media campaign themes: Do promising beliefs predict behavior change in a longitudinal study?

Robert C Hornik, Allyson C Volinsky, Shane Mannis, Laura Gibson, Emily Brennan, Stella J Lee, Andy S L Tan

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Communication methods and measures, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Understanding Potential Mechanisms of Vaping Prevention Messages: A Mediation Analysis of the Real Cost Campaign Advertisements.Health education & behavior : the official publication of the Society for Public Health Education · 2025
    Trial
  2. Trial
  3. Identifying key beliefs for anti-disinformation messaging for Black adults about proposed US bans on menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2026
    Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Reply to Dablander et al.: Identifying interventions that change intentions lays a valuable foundation for behavior change.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  7. Article
  8. Review
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  15. Psychophysiological responses to hookah tobacco public education messages among young adults.Health psychology : official journal of the Division of Health Psychology, American Psychological Association · 2021
    Article
  16. Article
  17. Development and Pretesting of Risk-Based Mobile Multimedia Message Content for Young Adult Hookah Use.Health education & behavior : the official publication of the Society for Public Health Education · 2019
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Robert C HornikAnnenberg School for Communication, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, rhornik@asc.upenn.edu, , 3620 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, PA 19104.
Allyson C VolinskyAnnenberg School for Communication, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.
Shane MannisFors Marsh Group, Arlington, VA.
Laura GibsonAnnenberg School for Communication, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.
Emily BrennanCentre for Behavioural Research in Cancer, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Stella J LeeDepartment of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA.
Andy S L TanPopulation Sciences Division, Center for Community Based Research, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA; Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA.

Funding

UPENN TCORS: Tobacco Product Messaging in a Complex Communication EnvironmentP50CA179546 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · PI HORNIK, ROBERT C. · 2013 to 2017
$18.7M
NCI NIH HHS P50 CA179546
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Hornik and Woolf (1999) proposed using cross-sectional survey data to prioritize beliefs to address with communication campaign messages. The empirical component of the approach combines evidence of (1) association of beliefs with intentions and (2) current level of beliefs to calculate a 'percentage to gain' as the potential promise of a belief. However, the method relies on cross-sectional data; its conclusions are open to challenge. Here, a panel study assesses whether the calculated promise of a belief actually predicts future behavior change. A nationally representative sample of 3,204 U.S. youth and young adults were interviewed twice, six months apart. Sixteen beliefs about the benefits and costs of smoking cigarettes are compared with regard to their percentage to gain (calculated from cross-sectional data) and their ability to account for subsequent cigarette use. A belief's cross-sectional percentage to gain is substantially associated with its ability to predict subsequent behavior change (

Indexed as

campaignschoosing messagescommunication research methodsevaluation researchhealth communicationmedia effectsobservational research methodssurveys

Identifiers

PMID31354897
PMCPMC6660171

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.