From individual movement behaviour to landscape-scale invasion dynamics and management: a case study of lionfish metapopulations.

Modelling the dynamics of small, interconnected populations, or metapopulations, can help pinpoint habitat patches that are critical for population persistence in patchy habitats. For conservation purposes, these patches are typically earmarked for protection, but for invasive species management, these patches could be targeted to hasten the populations' demise. Here, we show how metapopulation modelling, coupled with an understanding of size-dependent dispersal behaviour, can be used to help optimize the distribution of limited resources for culling specific populations of invasive Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans) in the western Atlantic. Through simulation using fitted model parameters, we derive three insights that can inform management. First, culling lionfish from target patches reduces the probability of lionfish occupancy at surrounding patches. Second, this effect depends on patch size and connectivity, but is strongest at the local scale and decays with distance. Finally, size-dependent dispersal in lionfish means that size-selective culling can change both a population's size distribution and dispersal potential, with cascading effects on network connectivity, population dynamics and management outcomes. By explicitly considering seascape structure and movement behaviour when allocating effort to the management of invasive species, managers can optimize resource use to improve management outcomes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Linking behaviour to dynamics of populations and communities: application of novel approaches in behavioural ecology to conservation'.