ArticleAIDS and behavior2020
Development and Validation of the Personalized Sexual Health Promotion (SexPro) HIV Risk Prediction Model for Men Who Have Sex with Men in the United States.
Article in AIDS and behavior, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 34 citations in OpenAlex.
- Risk prediction models for targeted testing of HIV, hepatitis B and hepatitis C: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Pooled it
- Machine learning for personalized risk assessment of HIV, syphilis, gonorrhoea and chlamydia: A systematic review and meta-analysis.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2025Pooled it
- Performance of HIV Infection Prediction Models in Men Who Have Sex with Men: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Archives of sexual behavior · 2023Pooled it
- Risk-Based Screening Tools to Optimise HIV Testing Services: a Systematic Review.Current HIV/AIDS reports · 2022Pooled it
- Developing a Novel Mobile App to Support HIV Testing and Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Uptake Among Men Who Have Sex With Men: Formative and Technical Pilot Study.JMIR human factors · 2025Trial
- Correlates of HIV and STI Testing in Rural Southern Substance Using-Men who have Sex with Men: A Behavioral Model for Health Services Use Approach.AIDS and behavior · 2026Article
- Article
- Development and Validation of a Novel Risk Calculator to Predict Sub-optimal HIV Outcomes Among Pregnant and Postpartum Women with HIV in Kenya.AIDS and behavior · 2025Article
- External validation of a web- and artificial intelligence-based HIV/STI risk assessment tool: performance evaluation using data from Sydney sexual health centre.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Diagnostic performance of HIV risk assessment tools for identifying pre-exposure prophylaxis candidates: a systematic review and meta-analysis.EClinicalMedicine · 2025Article
- HIV Risk Score and Prediction Model in the United States: A Scoping Review.AIDS and behavior · 2025Article
- Enhancing HIV/STI decision-making: challenges and opportunities in leveraging predictive models for individuals, healthcare providers, and policymakers.Journal of translational medicine · 2024Review
- Identifying Individuals at High Risk for HIV and Sexually Transmitted Infections With an Artificial Intelligence-Based Risk Assessment Tool.Open forum infectious diseases · 2024Article
- TRUST: Assessing the Efficacy of an Intervention to Increase HIV Self-Testing Among Young Black Men Who have Sex with Men (MSM) and Transwomen.AIDS and behavior · 2021Article
- Patient-Focused Selection of PrEP Medication for Individuals at Risk of HIV: A Narrative Review.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2021Review
- "You Are on the Right Track With the App:" Qualitative Analysis of Mobile Phone Use and User Feedback Regarding Mobile Phone Sexual Risk Assessments for HIV Prevention Research.Frontiers in digital health · 2021Article
- A Review of HIV Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Streamlining Strategies.Current HIV/AIDS reports · 2020Review
- Statistical approaches to accelerate the development of long-acting antiretrovirals for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis.Current opinion in HIV and AIDS · 2020Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
20 authors at 15 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Accurate HIV risk assessment among men who have sex with men (MSM) is important to help providers assess risk, and target HIV prevention interventions. We sought to develop an evidence-based HIV risk assessment tool for US MSM that is inclusive of Black MSM. Data from four large longitudinal cohorts of MSM were used to develop (EXPLORE), and validate (VAX004, HPTN061, and HVTN505). These data included visits in which participants self-reported HIV risk behavior and underwent HIV testing. We developed a pooled logistic model for incident HIV infection based on self-reported risk behaviors during the 6 months before each study visit. A total of 4069 MSM were used for the development cohort, and 8047 MSM in the three validation cohorts through 2013. The final model includes age (< 35, ≥ 35); Black race and Latino ethnicity; numbers of HIV-negative anal sex partners; number of insertive or receptive anal intercourse episodes; having 1 HIV-negative partner only; self-reported substance use; and bacterial sexually transmitted infection diagnosis. The model showed good discrimination in internal validation (C-statistic = 79.5). The external validation cohorts also showed good discrimination, with C-statistics of 73.1, 71.0, 71.9 in VAX004, HPTN061, and HVTN505 respectively, and acceptable calibration. We developed and validated an HIV risk assessment tool for MSM, which showed good predictive ability, including among the largest cohort of HIV-uninfected Black MSM in the US. This tool is available online (mysexpro.org) and can be used by providers to support targeting of HIV prevention interventions such as pre-exposure prophylaxis for MSM.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.