Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31351439›Full record

ArticleClinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America2020

Depletion-of-susceptibles Bias in Analyses of Intra-season Waning of Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness.

G Thomas Ray, Ned Lewis, Nicola P Klein, Matthew F Daley, Marc Lipsitch, Bruce Fireman

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
37citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

37 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Guideline
  2. Trial
  3. A simple and powerful test of vaccine waning.American journal of epidemiology · 2026
    Article
  4. Maternal ambient air pollution exposure and risk of stillbirth in Georgia, USA.Environmental epidemiology (Philadelphia, Pa.) · 2026
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Maternal ambient air pollution exposure and risk of stillbirth in Georgia, USA.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026
    Article
  9. Interim vaccine effectiveness against influenza virus among outpatients, France, October 2025 to January 2026.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2026
    Article
  10. Article
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  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Observational
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  16. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

G Thomas RayKaiser Permanente Vaccine Study Center and Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Program, Northern California Region, Oakland.
Ned LewisKaiser Permanente Vaccine Study Center and Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Program, Northern California Region, Oakland.
Nicola P KleinKaiser Permanente Vaccine Study Center and Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Program, Northern California Region, Oakland.
Matthew F DaleyInstitute for Health Research, Kaiser Permanente Colorado, Denver.
Marc LipsitchHarvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts.
Bruce FiremanKaiser Permanente Vaccine Study Center and Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Program, Northern California Region, Oakland.

Funding

Understanding and controlling antibiotic resistanceU54GM088558 · NIGMS · HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH · PI LIPSITCH, MARC · 2009 to 2018
$26.4M
Methods for Safety Evaluation of Vaccination SchedulesR01AI107721 · NIAID · HARVARD PILGRIM HEALTH CARE, INC. · PI KULLDORFF, MARTIN · 2014 to 2017
$1.6M
NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI107721NIGMS NIH HHS U54 GM088558
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Bias arises in studies of waning vaccine effectiveness when higher-risk individuals are depleted from the at-risk population at different rates between study groups. We examined how this bias arises and how to avoid it. A reanalysis of data from California confirmed a finding of intra-season waning of influenza vaccine effectiveness.

Indexed as

Influenza, HumanInfluenza VaccinesBiasDisease SusceptibilityHumansSeasonsVaccinationInfluenza Vaccinesbiasdepletion of susceptiblesinfluenzavaccine effectivenesswaning

Identifiers

PMID31351439
PMCPMC7318775

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.