ArticlePharmacoEconomics2019
Performance of the UKPDS Outcomes Model 2 for Predicting Death and Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus from a German Population-Based Cohort.
Article in PharmacoEconomics, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Prognostic models for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in type 2 diabetes: Systematic review.Diabetic medicine : a journal of the British Diabetic Association · 2026Pooled it
- Developing a Comprehensive Framework for Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation in Metastatic Castration-Sensitive Prostate Cancer: Insights from a Systematic Review.PharmacoEconomics · 2025Pooled it
- Effects of Blood-Glucose Lowering Therapies on Body Composition and Muscle Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes: A Narrative Review.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2025Review
- Development and validation of prediction models for stroke and myocardial infarction in type 2 diabetes based on health insurance claims: does machine learning outperform traditional regression approaches?Cardiovascular diabetology · 2025Article
- Prognostic models for cardiovascular and kidney outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes: living systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.BMJ medicine · 2025Article
- Using QALYs as an Outcome for Assessing Global Prediction Accuracy in Diabetes Simulation Models.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2025Article
- External validation of the UK prospective diabetes study (UKPDS) risk engine in patients with type 2 diabetes identified in the national diabetes program in Iran.Journal of diabetes and metabolic disorders · 2023Article
- Health and economic impact of improved glucose, blood pressure and lipid control among German adults with type 2 diabetes: a modelling study.Diabetologia · 2023Article
- Performance of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model 2 in a Contemporary UK Type 2 Diabetes Trial Cohort.Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research · 2022Article
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Abstract
BACKGROUND AND
objectiveAccurate prediction of relevant outcomes is important for targeting therapies and to support health economic evaluations of healthcare interventions in patients with diabetes. The United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk equations are some of the most frequently used risk equations. This study aims to analyze the calibration and discrimination of the updated UKPDS risk equations as implemented in the UKPDS Outcomes Model 2 (UKPDS-OM2) for predicting cardiovascular (CV) events and death in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) from population-based German samples.
methodsAnalyses are based on data of 456 individuals diagnosed with T2DM who participated in two population-based studies in southern Germany (KORA (Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg)-A: 1997/1998, n = 178; KORA-S4: 1999-2001, n = 278). We compared the participants' 10-year observed incidence of mortality, CV mortality, myocardial infarction (MI), and stroke with the predicted event rate of the UKPDS-OM2. The model's calibration was evaluated by Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino tests and discrimination was evaluated by C-statistics.
resultsOf the 456 participants with T2DM (mean age 65 years, mean diabetes duration 8 years, 56% male), over the 10-year follow-up time 129 died (61 due to CV events), 64 experienced an MI, and 46 a stroke. The UKPDS-OM2 significantly over-predicted mortality and CV mortality by 25% and 28%, respectively (Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino tests: p < 0.01), but there was no significant difference between predicted and observed MI and stroke risk. The model poorly discriminated for death (C-statistic [95% confidence interval] = 0.64 [0.60-0.69]), CV death (0.64 [0.58-0.71]), and MI (0.58 [0.52-0.66]), and failed to discriminate for stroke (0.57 [0.47-0.66]).
conclusionsThe study results demonstrate acceptable calibration and poor discrimination of the UKPDS-OM2 for predicting death and CV events in this population-based German sample. Those limitations should be considered when using the UKPDS-OM2 for economic evaluations of healthcare strategies or using the risk equations for clinical decision-making.
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