Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31347260›Full record

ArticleJournal of the International AIDS Society2019

Using a HIV registry to develop accurate estimates for the HIV care cascade - the Singapore experience.

Zheng Jie Marc Ho, Flora Huang, Chen Seong Wong, Lily Chua, Stefan Ma, Mark I-Cheng Chen, Vernon J Lee

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the International AIDS Society, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  7. A new patient registry for Chagas disease.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2020
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Zheng Jie Marc HoCommunicable Diseases, Division, Ministry of Health Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
Flora HuangNational Public Health Unit Singapore, Ministry of Health Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
Chen Seong WongNational Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore, Singapore.ORCID 0000-0003-3127-2853
Lily ChuaEpidemiology and Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
Stefan MaEpidemiology and Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
Mark I-Cheng ChenNational Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore, Singapore.ORCID 0000-0001-9369-5830
Vernon J LeeCommunicable Diseases, Division, Ministry of Health Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionAchieving UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets is a crucial step towards ending the AIDS epidemic. Many countries have published estimates of care cascades, although often with methodological limitations. We describe an approach that used the national HIV registry as a starting-point to determine the HIV care cascade and resulting UNAIDS 90-90-90 estimates for Singapore in 2014.

methodsHIV is a legally notifiable disease in Singapore. The anonymized HIV registry data provided for a back-calculation model from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control to obtain 2014 estimates for the total number of persons living with HIV (PLHIV), and the count in the registry for proportions diagnosed with HIV and linked to care. Using additional data collected for a simple random sample from the registry, outcomes in 2015 and 2016 were ascertained retrospectively to derive proportions for those retained in care, on antiretroviral therapy, and achieved viral suppression. Findings were extrapolated to derive national estimates and UN90-90-90 estimates. Bootstrapped samples from the model and sample were used to derive 95% confidence intervals.

resultsAn estimated 6900 (95% CI 6650, 7050) persons were living with HIV and AIDS in 2014. Of these, 4948 were diagnosed with HIV, and 4820 had been linked to care. The random sample of 500 persons was further analysed, and of these, 87.2% were retained in care, 84.6% on antiretroviral therapy, and 79.6% had suppressed viral loads. The proportions of HIV-infected individuals on antiretroviral therapy and achieving viral suppression were 60.7% (95% CI 58.4, 63.6) and 57.1% (95% CI 55.0, 60.5) respectively. The corresponding UNAIDS 90-90-90 estimates were 71.7% (95% CI 70.0, 74.2) of all persons diagnosed; 84.6% (95% CI 81.6, 87.4) of diagnosed persons being on antiretroviral therapy, and 94.1% (95% CI 91.6, 96.2) of persons on therapy having achieved viral suppression.

conclusionsA national HIV registry, alongside back-calculation and additional data from a sample, can be used to estimate attainment of UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets and identify system gaps. The registry had advantages of providing a well-established, comprehensive capture of diagnosed persons and easily accessible data. The same approach can be used elsewhere if similar data are available.

Indexed as

RegistriesAdultDelivery of Health CareDisease NotificationEpidemicsFemaleHIV-1HIV InfectionsHumansMaleMiddle AgedRetrospective StudiesSingaporeViral LoadepidemiologygoalsHIVmodellingregistriessampling studies

Identifiers

PMID31347260
PMCPMC6658839

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.